Nanhua Futures: Escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, Maersk's online quote for large containers in early March is $2010

Recently, there is a risk of escalation and spread of localized conflicts in the Middle East. Any event that threatens the safety of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz will impact global energy supply and shipping costs. Additionally, tensions in Eastern Europe and other regions may also affect regional supply chain stability. While these factors have not directly blocked the Europe route, they have indirectly increased the overall operational costs and risk premiums in the shipping industry by raising fuel prices and intensifying supply chain anxiety, as well as potential war surcharges. After the Spring Festival, market focus will shift to whether the traditional shipping peak in March can be smoothly achieved. The market has high expectations for the photovoltaic export rush in the early period, and there have been cases of container overload and dumping before the holiday. In the context of rerouting becoming the norm, shipowners’ capacity management (such as whether to increase suspension of services to match rising prices) will be crucial. The “hidden losses” in capacity caused by geopolitical tensions will be quickly amplified when demand recovers, potentially driving freight rates into a new upward cycle. If war breaks out, sentiment will be significantly affected; the specific tangible impacts will depend on how the conflict develops. (Nanhua Futures)