Guoxin Futures: Geopolitical and tariff uncertainties resonate, gold and silver fluctuate with a slight upward bias

During the Spring Festival, the overseas precious metals markets experienced intense competition over the US-Iran situation and Trump’s tariff policies. Gold and silver prices initially fell then rose, with increased volatility, showing an overall oscillating but slightly bullish trend. Regarding Iran, Trump signaled a preference for reaching an agreement rather than war, and US envoys will participate in a new round of negotiations, but the US military warned that the risk of military action against Iran remains very high, and geopolitical risks have not been fully eliminated. Concerning the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a new round of negotiations was held from February 26 to 27, but Ukraine’s attack on oil pipelines complicated the situation. On tariffs, the US Supreme Court overturned Trump’s previous tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Trump then invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a 10% temporary import tariff for 150 days, raising it to 15%, which sparked market concerns over trade friction. The European Parliament paused approval of US-Europe trade agreements. Trump warned that countries not complying with trade agreements would face higher tariffs and considered imposing new “national security tariffs” on six industries, further increasing policy uncertainty. On the macro front, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that AI could lead to mass layoffs. The March interest rate decision depends on February employment data, and market expectations for rate cuts remain uncertain. The precious metals market is expected to continue its oscillating but slightly bullish trend. (Guoxin Futures)