2.26 Here comes the key point!

$Yunnan Energy Holdings (sz001896)$ Brief note: Looking at the entire 2026 market trend together, it’s clear who is strong and who is weak. Reassessing the market since October last year makes the thinking clearer; here, due to limited space, I’ll keep it brief. Starting from 2026, first aerospace and AI launched, with the index rising amid regulatory oversight. GJD’s mysterious funds continued to sell off and reduce positions to control the pace. Then the market initiated a rally in precious metals, gold and silver, with leaders gaining 200% in January, while AI and aerospace leaders only about 100%, making the difference obvious. The main theme in January was precious metals. In February, the first week saw a correction in precious metals, aerospace recovery, and a chaotic market period. In the second week, ByteDance’s Seedance 2.0 emerged unexpectedly. Looking at the leading stocks, gains were less than double. After the Spring Festival, in the third week, funds returned to profit-taking on robots, AI, and others, and resource stocks like chemicals, small metals, rare earths, and oil started to rise in resonance, with trading volume steadily recovering. By now, everyone should understand the overall picture.

Looking at the current global economic cycle, briefly: AI investment is booming, leading funds to be pessimistic about traditional software and other industries. This is not just talk; now people are indeed using AI much more than before. Under the wave of AI development and investment, who will be the favorites of the era remains uncertain. At this point, it’s worth reconsidering the upward logic of bulk commodities, combined with factors like price hikes and geopolitical issues, which make everything clearer. It might sound simple, but just remember the conclusion. Next, I will analyze index levels and sentiment cycles:

1. Index Cycle Thinking:

The index trend aligns with previous predictions. After the Spring Festival, as funds returned, trading volume continued to rise, with daily limit-ups exceeding 100 and limit-downs dropping to single digits. In this environment, the index’s upward trend is natural. Going forward, the focus remains on when the funds will peak and how resilient the index will be after that. Before reaching the peak, the expectation is for oscillation and recovery. That’s the current thinking on the index cycle.

2. Sentiment Cycle Projection:

First, analysis of the true dragon: After the Spring Festival, funds mainly targeted traditional industries, resource stocks, and chemicals, while sectors like AI, computing power, and film/TV, which were hot before the festival, have recently corrected. As previously analyzed, since 2026, the market has recognized certain directions, mainly in bulk commodities. For AI, each new direction appears very hot but remains limited in height. It’s important to think carefully about why, especially since AI has been a focus of hype for the past three years. Regarding the February leaders, the current focus is still on resource stocks.

Second, opportunity analysis: When trading volume returns and the index rises in resonance, the post-holiday opportunities are in these directions. I see strong momentum in bulk commodities, with precious metals and oil & gas rebounding without topping out, and chemicals showing even stronger prospects. This expansion has spread to steel, coal, and others. After Wednesday’s midday, when the relay funds were insufficient, a sharp decline occurred in the afternoon. After the market dipped, funds started flowing back into aerospace and AI, which was a strategic move after the divergence in Thursday’s bulk commodity segment, with funds engaging in arbitrage.

In summary, the main themes for February are bulk commodities and AI. Aerospace is just reacting to some news for a short-term rebound, but it’s not easy to break out. The continuous two-day surge in bulk commodities and the divergence on Thursday, with AI correcting for two days, reflect expectations of recovery and correction respectively. For the index, after continuous upward movement, a pullback is expected on Thursday. The key is to observe where the divergence in bulk commodities leads, whether AI can break out after correction, and whether new themes like token exports post-Spring Festival or diamond-related assets can recover.

Overall, operational advice is to follow the main market themes and increase positions appropriately, paying attention to trading rhythm and avoiding chasing highs.

Special reminder: The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. No stock recommendations are provided! Investing involves risks; please proceed cautiously!