Bitcoin Coin Ticker Alert: Correlation With U.S. Stock Markets Returns

The tight relationship between bitcoin and the S&P 500 that dominated 2024 briefly disappeared following Donald Trump’s election in November, but traders watching the BTC coin ticker are now seeing the two asset classes move in tandem once again. After the presidential election on November 5, bitcoin surged significantly while U.S. equities stalled, creating what appeared to be a genuine divergence between the two traditional correlated assets. However, recent market movements suggest this decoupling was temporary.

The Short-Lived Separation: Post-Election Divergence

Following Trump’s victory in November, bitcoin’s coin ticker climbed while the S&P 500 advanced only modestly. The incoming administration’s well-documented pro-cryptocurrency stance, coupled with Republican control of both chambers of Congress, initially favored bitcoin independent movement. Over the weeks following November 5, BTC outperformed stocks significantly—a departure from their historical pattern of moving together.

This divergence reflected market expectations that favorable political conditions would drive bitcoin forward independently. The Republican sweep created an environment where crypto-friendly legislation seemed increasingly likely, providing a tailwind that stocks lacked.

Macro Headwinds and the Dollar’s Strength

Despite the political tailwind, broader macroeconomic conditions challenged both asset classes differently, according to Andre Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise in Europe. The Federal Reserve’s December decision to cut rates only twice in 2025—fewer than previously signaled—dampened equity valuations. “The Fed revised its planned rate cuts for 2025 to just 2 cuts, less than the market had anticipated,” Dragosch noted in an exclusive interview.

Simultaneously, the DXY index measuring dollar strength climbed 5%, creating headwinds for risk assets globally. For most assets, including bitcoin, a stronger dollar typically creates selling pressure. Yet bitcoin’s coin ticker proved resilient through this period, suggesting other market dynamics were at play.

On-Chain Support: Exchange Balances Decline

One factor helping bitcoin resist broader risk-off pressures was the persistent decline in exchange balances. As traders reduced holdings on centralized platforms, the supply available for immediate sale decreased, creating what analysts call a “supply deficit.” Glassnode data confirmed this pattern, with bitcoin exchange balances continuing to drift lower despite recent profit-taking activity.

“Exchange balances continue falling, which supports price stability,” Dragosch explained. This on-chain metric—tracked closely by sophisticated traders monitoring the BTC coin ticker—proved more supportive than the macro environment would have suggested, demonstrating the value of considering multiple analytical frameworks simultaneously.

The Correlation Returns: 0.88 and Rising Risk

As of late February, the situation has shifted again. Bitcoin and the S&P 500 correlation has climbed to 0.88 over the most recent 20-day moving average, according to TradingView data. (Correlation ranges from 0, meaning no relationship, to 1, meaning perfect synchronization.)

This renewed sync between the two asset classes may pose short-term risks for bitcoin traders. “While on-chain factors will likely provide significant support at least through mid-2025, the deterioration in the macro picture could create near-term headwinds for bitcoin as well, especially given the still-elevated correlation with stocks,” Dragosch warned.

For investors watching the bitcoin coin ticker in real time, this correlation return means market movements increasingly depend on stock market sentiment rather than crypto-specific catalysts—a departure from the post-election divergence that characterized much of late 2025.

Technical Bounce and Altcoin Spillover

Bitcoin recently rebounded to $69,000 in what appeared to be a sharp short squeeze, with the movement rippling through altcoins including ETH, SOL, DOGE, and ADA. Crypto-focused equities like Coinbase and Circle similarly surged on thin liquidity and reduced bearish positioning rather than fundamental developments.

However, LMAX Group analyst Joel Kruger urged caution about the rebound’s staying power. “The bounce appears primarily technical rather than fundamentally driven,” he noted, suggesting coin ticker patterns may simply reflect positioning adjustments rather than genuine demand.

Key Resistance Levels for Bitcoin Traders

For traders monitoring the BTC coin ticker going forward, technical resistance levels around $72,000 and $78,000 deserve close attention. Breaking these levels on a sustained basis would signal a stronger structural uptrend that could offset the renewed stock market correlation.

Current levels place BTC near $67.97K with a 24-hour gain of 2.51%, according to the latest market data. Whether the coin ticker can break decisively above key resistance will likely determine whether the technical bounce has genuine staying power or represents merely a tactical oversold recovery in a larger downtrend driven by macro factors.

The path forward appears contingent on whether on-chain support metrics can overcome the headwind of renewed stock market correlation through mid-2025.