Zimbabwe's sudden lithium mine ban: Are price hike expectations heating up again? Multiple stocks have already received over 100 million yuan in additional funding from investors

On February 25, Zimbabwe issued an emergency statement announcing the immediate suspension of all lithium ore and lithium concentrate exports, including goods already in transit, to strengthen mineral oversight and accountability.

Africa’s Largest Lithium Exporter Announces “Supply Cut”

According to a statement from Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Mines, only companies with valid mining rights and approved beneficiation plants will be eligible to export in the future. Agents and third-party traders are prohibited from exporting. Companies must submit a letter from the provincial mining office regarding beneficiation capacity and compliance, along with mineral composition reports when applying. Violators (such as those continuing to use expired permits) will have their export licenses and mining rights revoked.

According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, Zimbabwe plans to fully ban concentrate exports by 2027. Currently, companies with lithium salt or lithium sulfate production capacity in the country can still apply for lithium concentrate export licenses. Lithium sulfate products are also permitted for export at this stage.

Data shows Zimbabwe is Africa’s top lithium exporter and the second-largest source of lithium concentrate imports for China. Customs data indicates that from January to December 2025, China imported approximately 7.75 million tons of lithium concentrate, a 39.4% increase year-over-year, mainly from Australia, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, and other countries.

(Source: China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Branch Official Microblog)

Notably, the export ban has already impacted the global lithium supply chain, reflected in the capital markets.

In the two trading days following the announcement, lithium-related sectors surged, with major miners like Zhongjin Mining and Guocheng Mining hitting new all-time highs. In futures markets, lithium carbonate futures contracts continued to strengthen, rising over 9% in two days after the holiday.

Institutions: Lithium Prices Still Have Upward Potential

Zimbabwe’s lithium mining ban, significantly earlier than the original plan for a full 2027 embargo, has caused disruptions in the global lithium supply chain. Experts believe this move directly reduces global lithium supply, intensifies concentrate shortages, and enlarges short-term supply gaps, boosting lithium price elasticity.

“For the global lithium market, this is not just an export restriction but a signal of a reshaping supply landscape,” commented Caixin Futures. Tightening lithium concentrate supply drives prices higher, lithium carbonate prices become more elastic, and the export advantage of lithium sulfate becomes more prominent, further elevating industry chain prices and accelerating upstream and downstream integration.

The agency notes that Zimbabwe’s suspension of high-quality mineral exports directly reduces immediate global supply. Coupled with low domestic inventories, this widens supply gaps, reinforcing market expectations of resource tightening, and pushing lithium concentrate prices upward. Long-term, geopolitical factors, resource nationalism, and policy shifts could amplify scarcity pricing, with lithium prices potentially rising beyond static supply-demand models.

According to Guotai Junan Futures estimates, Zimbabwe will supply 177,000 tons of LCE in 2026, accounting for 8.1% of global resources. Due to geopolitical influences and resource localization, combined with tight fundamentals, lithium prices are expected to remain strong.

Orient Securities believes that in the short term, downstream energy storage demand is accelerating, and supply in regions like Jiangxi is delayed due to approval issues. Market perception of lithium industry pricing has shifted from “loose reality” to “tight expectations,” with lithium price centers likely to fluctuate more within 2026. Long-term, resource competition among major countries, policy tools, and industry sentiment could magnify scarcity pricing, with lithium prices potentially exceeding expectations and exhibiting higher volatility than static supply-demand projections.

Retail Investors Rush to Buy Multiple Lithium Mining Stocks

According to Eastmoney, currently 39 A-share stocks are related to lithium mining, with a total market value exceeding 4.41 trillion yuan, including giants like CATL and Zijin Mining, each over 1 trillion yuan. Six other stocks, such as Salt Lake and Ganfeng Lithium, are also valued above 100 billion yuan.

Since 2026, 31 lithium-related stocks have seen price increases, with an average rise of about 15.37%. Top gainers include Dongyangguang, Weiling Shares, and Yuntu Holdings, with gains of 68.52%, 58.29%, and 40.44%, respectively. Eight stocks, including Shengxin Lithium Energy, Zhongda Mining, Guocheng Mining, and Salt Lake, have increased over 20% in this period.

Data from Eastmoney Choice shows that 23 lithium stocks have seen leveraged funds increase holdings this year, with 11 stocks having net financing purchases exceeding 100 million yuan. Zijin Mining and Salt Lake each attracted 4.147 billion yuan and 1.163 billion yuan in financing, respectively. Zhongkuang Resources, Ganfeng Lithium, and Western Mining also saw net financing exceeding 400 million yuan, with Tibet Everest receiving 289 million yuan.

Zijin Mining recently announced plans to accelerate production at its Argentina 3Q salt lake, Tibet Laguo Cuo Salt Lake, and Hunan Xiangyuan Lithium Mine Phase I, while advancing feasibility studies or construction for Phase II. The company aims to become one of the world’s largest lithium producers.

Salt Lake, a leading domestic lithium salt producer, revealed during recent institutional visits that by 2025, it plans to produce 4.9 million tons of potassium chloride and 46,500 tons of lithium carbonate, with sales of 3.8143 million tons of potassium chloride and 45,600 tons of lithium carbonate, showing significant year-over-year growth. The company’s goal by 2030 is to reach an annual capacity of 10 million tons of potash fertilizer, 200,000 tons of lithium salts, and over 30,000 tons of magnesium and magnesium-based materials.

Ganfeng Lithium produces over 40 types of lithium compounds and metals, making it one of the most comprehensive lithium product manufacturers. A recent Dongwu Securities report suggests that considering the price elasticity driven by lithium carbonate price increases and the company’s full industry chain layout, a 2026 valuation of 25 times earnings is justified, with a target price of 112 yuan per share.

(Source: Eastmoney Research Center)