Why hasn't the lively Chinese New Year theme gained popularity? How will the US tariff adjustments impact the A-shares? Frontline insights from fund companies

The A-share market welcomed its first trading day after the Spring Festival holiday. The Shanghai Composite Index opened with a strong volume and a “good start,” but a subtle contrast to the lively scenes during the holiday, such as the “Cyber Spring Festival Gala” and travel consumption, is that some popular themes like film and television, artificial intelligence, computing power, and robotics have significantly cooled down.

On February 24, film and television ETFs fell nearly 8%, with industry-themed ETFs such as gaming, Hong Kong internet, media, AI, and cloud computing leading declines. Market humorously commented, “The teachers who praised robots, computing power, and AI during the Spring Festival are now silent; the teachers who praised movies have left the group.”

Meanwhile, overseas markets during the holiday were not calm: the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that previous reciprocal tariffs were illegal, prompting the Trump administration to quickly “repackage” and introduce new tariffs, and signals of renewed Middle East geopolitical conflicts re-emerged.

Against this backdrop of multiple internal and external factors, how will the market perform after the holiday? Where are the main investment themes? Several public fund institutions have provided immediate analysis and post-market strategy recommendations.

First Day After the Spring Festival: Hot Themes Fade, How Do Fund Companies View It?

On the first trading day of the Year of the Horse, the three major indices all closed higher, but sector performance was highly differentiated. Cyclical sectors such as cultivated diamonds, phosphate chemicals, and oil and gas exploration led gains, while previously popular AI application themes like DeepSeek and Kimi declined sharply. Some hot themes from before experienced divergence or even retracement. The “Spring Festival blockbusters” concept, which was widely discussed online, did not ignite the market as expected. Why did the lively themes during the Spring Festival fade?

This divergence reflects the market’s reallocation of funds under multiple influences. “The spring turbulence of 2026 has partly shifted to January, and there was a substantial realization of growth styles before the holiday. Coupled with possible regulatory cooling measures and significant ETF outflows, the overall February index is expected to fluctuate.” said Jin Ying Fund.

This indicates that some profit-taking occurred after the holiday, putting short-term pressure on tech themes.

Deeper reasons include risk avoidance and defensive positioning of funds. Some fund companies believe that although domestic positive factors have accumulated, overseas macro uncertainties and geopolitical risks during the holiday significantly suppressed overall risk appetite. Global funds tend to favor safe-haven assets, which to some extent diverted capital from high-risk themes in the stock market.

Additionally, Guotai Fund reviewed the market patterns after the Spring Festival, noting that within 5, 10, and 20 trading days post-holiday, the probability of market gains gradually increased, with a style characterized by “small and medium caps outperforming large caps, and growth leading.” Although long-term growth remains dominant, short-term leadership often depends on event-driven catalysts. During the Spring Festival, progress in overseas large models, changes in U.S. tariffs, and U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflicts became new catalysts, shifting market focus from “Spring Festival excitement” to “geopolitical conflicts” and “policy games.” As a result, sectors like non-ferrous metals and oil and gas performed more prominently on the first day after the holiday.

In summary, the so-called “Spring Festival themes cooling off” is essentially a normal style rebalancing and risk appetite adjustment after the previous surge in tech stocks, amid rising overseas uncertainties. Fund companies point out that funds have not exited the market but are migrating from pure theme speculation to more certain performance and defensive sectors.

Morgan Asset Management also reminds investors that when tech valuations are generally high, short-term emotional fluctuations that lead to mispricing may present better entry opportunities.

What Impact Does the Reshaping of U.S. Tariffs Have on the Market?

During the Spring Festival holiday, tariff policies across the Pacific experienced dramatic swings. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the “reciprocal tariffs” were illegal. However, the White House quickly invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, announcing an additional 15% tariff on imports from around the world for 150 days. This “new replaces old” drama will have what effects on global markets and A-shares?

Morgan Asset Management interprets that the Supreme Court’s ruling, which declared the IEEPA tariffs illegal, likely limits the scope and impact of U.S. tariffs. This could help further control U.S. inflation and may even boost consumption in the short term due to some tax refunds. However, Huatai Fund remains cautious, noting that although Trump raised tariffs to 15%, the time and rate caps under Section 122 mean it cannot serve as a long-term stable tariff basis. Short-term policy uncertainties still exist.

Jinying Fund believes that if the broad-spectrum tariffs of 10% are truly implemented and further escalated, they will have profound effects on export chains and global industrial restructuring. In this context, consumer sectors benefiting from domestic demand and policy support—such as automotive and home appliances—are relatively more defensive and offensive.

This tariff turmoil not only affects trade flows but also deeply impacts dollar credit. Yongyin Fund points out that with the weakening independence of the Federal Reserve and rising deficit rates, the credibility of the dollar and U.S. Treasuries is being eroded. Although the Supreme Court’s ruling negated the old tariffs, it also exposed the chaos and uncertainty in U.S. trade policy, which in turn reinforces the global “de-dollarization” trend. Countries like Denmark, Poland, and Sweden are selling U.S. Treasuries or increasing gold holdings.

Huatai Fund agrees, noting that the macro structural factors supporting gold have not fundamentally reversed, including ongoing central bank gold purchases under de-dollarization and the long-term credit erosion of the dollar driven by U.S. fiscal policies. They suggest adopting a prudent asset allocation approach to gold investment.

Post-Market Investment Strategies: Fund Companies Recommend Focusing on Three Main Lines

Faced with a complex start, how to find main investment themes amid volatility is a key concern. Several fund companies have provided clear allocation directions, mainly focusing on two main themes: technological growth and cyclical/resource sectors, along with high-dividend assets as core holdings.

Main Theme 1: Emerging Technology, Deepening AI and Robotics Industries. Despite a tech correction before the holiday, nearly all institutions agree that technology remains a key investment theme.

Morgan Asset Management recommends sticking to medium-term industry trends in technology, focusing on the deepening of AI and related fields. They highlight three levels: first, AI infrastructure (semiconductor equipment, optical modules, computing power support like gas turbines and liquid cooling); second, AI applications and terminals (robotics industry chain as a core); third, emerging industries in the “14th Five-Year Plan” (commercial aerospace, quantum technology).

Jinying Fund also favors AI + humanoid robots, believing that the year may shift from “event-driven” to “scenario-based” development. They suggest focusing on midstream components (gear reducers, servo motors, sensors) and computing power chains (storage chips, PCB/IC substrates).

Main Theme 2: Cyclical and Resource Sectors Under Price Rise and Risk Hedging Logic, Especially Gold. As PPI expectations recover and geopolitical conflicts intensify, resource sectors’ allocation value becomes prominent.

Yongyin Fund strongly favors gold stocks. The logic is that geopolitical uncertainties and easing expectations are positive factors; gold mining companies maintain high growth, with current PEs of only 10–15, well below historical valuation centers, offering significant valuation repair potential and likely to see both earnings and valuation double.

Jinying Fund recommends paying attention to cyclical sectors with rising prices such as oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and infrastructure-related building materials and chemicals benefiting from the “14th Five-Year Plan” infrastructure projects. Guotai Fund also believes that, in the medium term, the focus on rising prices remains the market’s main concern, especially as the Q1-Q2 construction season will test the strength of price increases.

Main Theme 3: High Dividends and Domestic Consumption as “Ballast” in Volatile Markets. During periods of market divergence, high-dividend assets offer stable returns. Jinying Fund suggests using sectors like banks, energy, telecommunications, and utilities for core holdings to hedge against overseas volatility and geopolitical risks.

Regarding domestic consumption, Morgan Asset Management and Great Wall Fund are optimistic about sectors benefiting from Spring Festival data and service consumption. Morgan particularly notes that Hong Kong stocks have many leading companies in the service and consumer sectors, with structural advantages in travel and consumption. Great Wall Fund recommends focusing on consumer services, food and beverages, and building materials—these sectors are at bottom levels in expectations and holdings, with potential for turning points.