Crypto Daily Report #马年开工第一帖 02.26 ( : Bitcoin Breaks $68,000, Institutional Accumulation and Short Liquidations Resonating, Market Correlation Significantly Weakening

1. Bitcoin Price Trends and Technical Analysis
1. Bitcoin has recently fluctuated between $62,000 and $68,000. The four-hour technical chart shows the price briefly breaking through the midline but encountering selling pressure and pulling back. The MACD indicator shows increasing bullish momentum but may be losing steam. The Bollinger Bands' middle line is resisting at $68,000, with support at $63,000-$64,000.
2. Regarding trading strategies, the market suggests that if the price cannot stabilize above the midline, consider shorting on rallies with targets at $64,000 and $63,000; a rebound near $66,000 can also be shorted, with a stop above $66,500. On February 25 during U.S. trading hours, Bitcoin rebounded above $68,500, with a 24-hour increase of over 6%. Altcoins also rose in tandem, with Ethereum returning to $2,000.
3. Midnight market outlook indicates that Bitcoin rebounded to around $67,000. The daily Bollinger Bands' lower band has no room to extend further, so short positions should watch for forced liquidations. Ethereum near $2,000 can be shorted with targets down to $1,820-$1,700.
2. Institutional Movements and Company Holdings
1. On the institutional level, BlackRock deposited 1,134 BTC worth approximately $74.18 million into Cb, possibly continuing to add more, indicating ongoing institutional allocation to BTC.
2. In corporate news, Nasdaq-listed GD Culture's board approved the sale of 7,500 BTC to support a $100 million share buyback plan. The current holdings are valued at $497 million, with an unrealized loss of $344 million.
3. Bitdeer has sold all its Bitcoin holdings. Riot Platforms reduced holdings at the end of last year, while mining companies like TeraWulf and Cipher Mining saw their stock prices strengthen against the trend due to short covering and electricity advantages.
3. Market Capital Flows and Sentiment Indicators
1. Regarding market sentiment, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index was in extreme fear (11) for most of February. Perpetual contract funding rates turned negative, indicating strong shorting sentiment. On February 25, Bitcoin's rebound liquidated nearly $400 million in leveraged short positions, reversing capital flows between longs and shorts.
2. Capital flow data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $257 million on February 24, with a single-day net inflow of 3,732 BTC on the 25th. Ethereum ETF experienced a net outflow of 2,311 ETH, Solana ETF saw an inflow of 60,242 SOL. Market funds are favoring Bitcoin and high-volatility altcoins. Signs of returning U.S. buyers are emerging, with the Cb premium index turning positive. Traditional market risk appetite has improved, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising, driving a rebound in crypto stocks like Cb and Circle.
4. Correlation and Maturity Analysis of Bitcoin and Other Assets
1. Regarding correlation, Bitcoin's correlation with U.S. stocks has fallen to its lowest since the 2022 FTX collapse. Over the past six months, Bitcoin declined 43%, while the S&P 500 rose 7%, gold increased 51%. The market believes this divergence is unlikely to last long, as historically, correlations tend to revert with macroeconomic changes.
2. In terms of maturity, Bitcoin volatility has narrowed close to gold and the S&P 500 levels. In 2025, institutional accumulation reached 829,000 BTC. Bitcoin is held in 23 countries, with an accumulated increase of 400,000 BTC in the $60,000-$70,000 range, forming a new support level. The Hash Ribbon indicator is nearing a signal that miners are giving up, with the 30-day hash rate moving average surpassing the 60-day average, possibly indicating a market bottom approaching.
5. Expert Criticisms of Bitcoin
Jimmy Wales, co-founder of Wikipedia, criticizes Bitcoin, stating that as a currency and store of value, it is "completely failed," difficult to use, highly volatile, and not widely accepted. He considers it mainly a speculative asset and predicts that by 2050, its price will fall below $10,000 (in current USD). He admits Bitcoin can evade financial scrutiny in authoritarian regimes, but despite its robust design, it cannot become mainstream currency. He believes traditional assets like gold and silver remain dominant stores of value. As of February 25, Bitcoin's trading price is approximately $68,716, up 7% in 24 hours, but Wales argues its adoption and practicality are insufficient for long-term dominance over traditional assets.