The crypto environment is already undergoing transformation under Trump, according to JPMorgan

Donald Trump’s electoral victory in November 2024 has triggered structural changes in the U.S. digital asset landscape. The total crypto market capitalization has already increased by approximately 65% since then, reflecting investor expectations of more favorable policies. However, JPMorgan warns that the true crypto transformation is just beginning to materialize, with regulatory impacts potentially taking 9 to 12 months to fully unfold.

Crypto Market Already Reflects Optimism, But Technical Warnings Remain

The recent rally of Bitcoin to $69,000 represents more than just an upward move. JPMorgan analysts note that the new administration not only projects a favorable attitude toward digital assets but has also demonstrated a concrete willingness to reshape the regulatory framework. “This administration shows both willingness and genuine enthusiasm to promote this asset class,” wrote analysts led by Kenneth Worthington.

However, the recent rally hides complex technical dynamics. According to Joel Kruger of LMAX Group, the current movement is primarily driven by short position squeezes and reduced liquidity, rather than clear fundamental catalysts. Bitcoin jumped to $69,000, shaking out altcoins like Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), and Ethereum (ETH), as well as affecting crypto companies like Circle, Coinbase, and BitMine. Joshua Lim of FalconX confirms that some funds are capitalizing on this move, rotating into volatile options, but cautions about its sustainability.

JPMorgan Identifies Crypto Changes Already in Motion, With Regulatory Gaps

The regulatory transformation already underway includes key appointments in the digital financial oversight architecture. The incoming administration has already nominated personnel involved in shaping crypto regulations, establishing a baseline from which “the worst regulatory environment for digital assets is behind us,” according to JPMorgan analysis.

Still, a critical gap remains: Trump’s nomination for the chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This position is crucial because the CFTC will play a central role in overseeing Bitcoin (currently trading at $68.10K) and Ethereum (ETH at $2.05K). Without designated officials for this role, certain aspects of the crypto agenda remain incomplete.

Key Resistance Levels Will Confirm Crypto Trend

For Bitcoin to consolidate gains and demonstrate that the bullish crypto trend is sustainable beyond technical rebounds, it must consistently break through two key resistance levels: $72,000 and $78,000. Failing to break these barriers would suggest that the current movement is mainly speculative, while a sustained breakout could pave the way for more robust bullish structures.

Regulatory Timeline: When Will the Crypto Impact Fully Materialize

JPMorgan estimates that the benefits of an improved regulatory environment—including more tokens listed on exchanges and brokers, along with increased product innovation—will take 9 to 12 months to reflect in prices and trading volumes. This means that although the discourse and nominations have already begun, operational implementation still requires time.

The crypto industry already anticipates a “safer, more transparent, and more productive era from a regulatory perspective.” However, investors and market participants should maintain realistic expectations regarding the timeline: optimism must be balanced with patience, and technical volatility should be distinguished from the fundamental cycles of transformation that are just beginning.