U.S. Stock Preview | Three Major Stock Index Futures Rise Together, NVIDIA (NVDA.US) Earnings Report Hits Hard

1. On February 25th (Wednesday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock indices futures all rose. As of press time, Dow futures are up 0.32%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.35%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.43%.

2. As of press time, Germany’s DAX index is up 0.29%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.95%, France’s CAC 40 index is up 0.40%, and the European Stoxx 50 index is up 0.69%.

3. As of press time, WTI crude oil is up 0.90%, at $66.22 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 1.01%, at $71.29 per barrel.

“Self-Powered” Era Coming? Trump’s New Policies Could Trigger a Super Cycle in Power Equipment. U.S. President Trump stated that under the so-called “Electricity Price Payer Protection Commitment” recently negotiated by the U.S. government, American tech giants building large-scale AI data centers will have to bear their own electricity demands and related costs. During his State of the Union address, Trump said that tech companies will be required by the government to build dedicated power supply systems for their expanding AI infrastructure, rather than relying on local grids or significantly increasing loads. The consumer electricity rate protection pledge in his speech essentially rewrites the policy framework to attribute the costs of the additional load from AI data centers, requiring large tech firms to either build their own power infrastructure or avoid passing the extra electricity costs onto local grids and residents.

“AI-Only” Theory Is Outdated? JPMorgan Optimistic About Traditional Industry Recovery, Macroeconomy Moving Toward Diversification. Whether AI ultimately leads to a bleak depression or a “rebirth” of productivity, it currently dominates macroeconomic thinking and stock market strategies. However, peeling back the details of global industrial growth reveals that other parts of the economy remain strong; AI is just part of the story. The stock market is clearly obsessed with AI—and the focus is shifting from the big winners to potential losers. As the highest market cap company globally and the undisputed biggest winner of the AI boom so far, NVIDIA (NVDA.US) will release earnings on Wednesday, providing a “reality check” on the soaring capital expenditures and chip demand.

NVIDIA (NVDA.US) Pre-Earnings Tech Rally: Safe-Haven Funds Exit, Traditional Safe Assets Weakening. Driven by gains in tech stocks, investors are pulling out of safe-haven assets, causing US Treasury prices to fall and the dollar to weaken. Nasdaq futures are up 0.2%, continuing Tuesday’s 1% rise. After weeks of turbulence, concerns over AI’s disruptive impact have eased. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose two basis points to 4.05%; meanwhile, the dollar and yen underperformed most major currencies. The risk appetite rebound has also led markets to reduce bets on Fed rate cuts, increasing bond market pressure. Mizuho International strategist Evelyn Gomez-Liceti said, “With the 10-year US Treasury yield so close to the psychological 4% mark, I think any buying will be more valuable for shorting.”

Record-High Earnings Season Yet S&P 500 Shows “Mixed Signals”? US companies just reported one of the strongest earnings seasons in recent years, but stock performance has diverged. The S&P 500’s Q4 earnings grew 13%, exceeding expectations by nearly six percentage points. The ratio of companies raising versus lowering guidance in the Russell 3000 reached 4:1—levels seen only after recessions or post-tax reform in 2018. Yet, within six weeks between JPMorgan and Walmart earnings, the S&P 500 fell 1.7%, marking the worst performance in the past 10 quarters. Part of the reason is that stocks were already at all-time highs at the start of earnings season, and recent uncertainties—such as AI-driven trading shifting from broad rallies to stock-specific divergence and then to panic selling—have unsettled investors.

NVIDIA (NVDA.US) Earnings Coming, Can the “AI Bullish Narrative” Overcome the “AI Bubble”? As NVIDIA prepares to report after US markets close on Wednesday, a “stress test” for AI computing investment themes is underway. Global investors are seeking evidence that this world’s most valuable chipmaker’s profits are closely tied to the massive AI capital expenditure budgets of the four largest US tech giants, estimated at $650 billion to $700 billion, and that strong growth expectations are justified. Data shows that NVIDIA’s performance could trigger significant market volatility. Implied options volatility suggests about ±5% movement in stock price post-earnings, corresponding to roughly $226 billion in single-event valuation swings given its approximately $4.7 trillion market cap.

Lowe’s (LOW.US) Full-Year Guidance Misses Expectations, High Interest Rates Continue to Suppress Housing Market Recovery. Lowe’s issued full-year sales guidance below market expectations, expecting same-store sales to be flat to up 2%, indicating that high borrowing costs and economic volatility will continue to weigh on short-term housing market performance. Despite better-than-expected Q4 same-store sales and adjusted earnings, pre-market shares fell over 3%. Over the past three years, US consumers have delayed home purchases or upgrades due to high interest rates and inflation concerns, leading to a sluggish housing rebound. Although recent declines in mortgage rates and stabilized home prices offer some signs of recovery, demand has yet to improve significantly. Consumers continue to cut back on large discretionary spending, focusing instead on essentials and high-value goods. To cope with ongoing weakness, Lowe’s is focusing on operational efficiency and expanding its professional contractor business.

HSBC (HSBC.US) Reports 2025 Results, Post-Tax Profit Down $1.9 Billion to $23.1 Billion. HSBC announced its 2025 outlook, with revenue rising $2.4 billion to $68.3 billion, a 4% increase; net interest income at $34.8 billion, up $2.1 billion; pre-tax profit on a standard basis down $2.4 billion to $29.9 billion; after-tax profit down $1.9 billion to $23.1 billion; and basic earnings per share of $1.21, with a proposed fourth dividend of $0.45 per share. The revenue increase was mainly driven by growth in wealth management (from investment distribution and insurance) and wholesale transaction banking fees and other income, especially in FX within corporate and institutional banking. However, some of the growth was offset by year-over-year impacts related to asset sales and impairments associated with Bank of Communications.

Earnings Surpass Expectations but Stock Price Plummets! HP Inc. (HPQ.US) Pre-Market Drop Over 6% — Tariffs and Memory Price Hikes as “Profit Killers.” In the first quarter ending January 31, HP reported revenue up 6.9% YoY to $14.4 billion, and adjusted EPS of $0.81, beating expectations (revenue of $13.9 billion, EPS of $0.77). However, facing a complex operating environment, HP expressed caution about future performance. The company stated that, given increasing market liquidity, FY2026 earnings are expected to be at the lower end of the previous guidance of $2.90–$3.20 per share. For the second quarter ending in April, it forecasts adjusted EPS of $0.70–$0.76, versus analyst expectations of $0.75. US tariffs and rising memory chip prices may lead to lower-than-expected profits in the upcoming quarter.

Sandisk (SNDK.US) Attacked by Citron: Is It Just a Play on NVIDIA (NVDA.US)? Dream on, you’re just trading commodities! Benefiting from the storage chip supercycle, Sandisk soared until Tuesday when Citron Research announced it had established a short position. Citron sharply criticized the market’s overvaluation of Sandisk, claiming there is a serious mispricing. Following this news, Sandisk’s stock fell over 4% on Tuesday. Although this decline is minor compared to its roughly 175% gain this year and over 1200% total return in the past year, the short position casts a shadow over this rocket ride.

Following Google, Microsoft (MSFT.US) Faces “Knock-on” Effects: Japan’s Anti-Monopoly Crackdown Intensifies, Cloud Business Under Regulatory Scrutiny. According to an insider, Japan’s Fair Trade Commission (JFTC) launched a raid on Microsoft Japan on February 25. The investigation centers on whether Microsoft has abused its dominant position in OS and office software markets to unfairly promote Azure cloud and restrict competitors. Authorities suspect Microsoft has set unfair licensing terms that make it more costly or technically difficult for customers to run Windows Server or Microsoft 365 on third-party platforms like AWS or Google Cloud compared to Azure.

Webster’s Deal Finalized, Santander (SAN.US) Announces Three-Year Strategy: Over €20 Billion Net Profit by 2028, RoTE Target of 20%. After completing a milestone acquisition of US-based Webster Financial, Spanish banking giant Santander held an investor day in London on February 25 to unveil its 2026–2028 strategic roadmap. The bank committed to increasing annual net profit to over €20 billion (about $23.6 billion) by 2028, and aims to raise core profitability metrics—Tangible Equity Return on Equity (RoTE)—from 16.3% in 2025 to over 20%. Santander also announced that starting from 2027, it will adjust its dividend policy to increase cash dividends to 35% of profits, while reducing share buybacks proportionally.

Key Economic Data and Event Calendar

• 20:30 Beijing Time: US January Wholesale Inventories MoM preliminary (%)(02/25–03/04)

• 23:30 Beijing Time: US EIA Crude Oil Inventory Change (Thousand Barrels) for the week ending 02/20

• 23:35 Beijing Time: FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks

• Next day early morning 00:00 Beijing Time: FOMC voter and Kansas Fed President Smith speaks

• Next day early morning 02:20 Beijing Time: FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Bullard on Fed’s role

• Next day early morning 05:00 Beijing Time: NVIDIA releases earnings

• Next day 05:30 Beijing Time: NVIDIA holds earnings conference call

• Thursday morning: NVIDIA (NVDA.US), Synopsys (SNPS.US), Salesforce (CRM.US), Snowflake (SNOW.US), Ctrip (TCOM.US)

• Thursday pre-market: Stellantis (STLA.US), Baidu (BIDU.US), iQiyi (IQ.US), Vipshop (VIPS.US), Zai Lab (ZLAB.US), Daqo New Energy (DQ.US)