Unprofitable Miner Wave Pushes BTC Mining Cost Down to $45K Range

The landscape for Bitcoin miners has shifted dramatically following the recent halving event. According to JPMorgan’s latest analysis, the current threshold for btc mining cost now sits around $45,000—down from the previous $50,000+ levels. This decline reflects a natural market correction as less efficient operations struggle to survive in the new economic reality.

The Halving Effect: Why Mining Profitability Suddenly Shifted

Every four years, Bitcoin’s halving mechanism cuts miner rewards in half, fundamentally altering the economics of mining operations. The recent halving achieved exactly what analysts expected: it created immediate pressure on miners operating at the margins. However, JPMorgan noted a surprising delay in the full network adjustment.

The bank had anticipated a swift exodus of unprofitable miners immediately after the reward cut. Instead, an unexpected catalyst kept operations running longer than expected—the launch of the Runes protocol introduced a new form of token creation on the Bitcoin network, triggering a temporary surge in transaction fees.

Runes Protocol’s Brief Windfall: A False Signal for Miners

When Runes launched, miners suddenly found an additional revenue stream beyond block rewards. “Bitcoin miners were able to offset the loss in issuance reward due to halving with the surge in transactions fees, keeping the block rewards for miners almost unchanged,” JPMorgan analysts noted.

This temporary boost proved deceptive. User activity on Runes dropped sharply within weeks as the initial hype faded, and transaction fees collapsed along with it. As JPMorgan observed: “The boost from Runes proves short-lived, however, with users’ activity and fees dropping dramatically over the past week or two.” This pattern exposed a fundamental vulnerability: miners need sustainable revenue sources, not fleeting fee spikes.

Why Inefficient Rigs Are Now Exiting

With the Runes bonus evaporating and block rewards permanently halved, the mathematics became unforgiving for operators running older or energy-inefficient mining hardware. Power consumption on the Bitcoin network fell more sharply than hashrate (the total computational power securing the network), a clear signal that unprofitable miners with inefficient equipment have been forced offline.

JPMorgan identified this dynamic as healthy market adjustment: “The more bitcoin prices decline the higher the number of unprofitable miners that come under pressure to leave the Bitcoin network and the larger the resulting decline in the hashrate and bitcoin production cost.” In other words, lower btc mining cost emerges from a Darwinian process where only efficient operators remain viable.

Market Headwinds and Limited Near-Term Upside

As of late February 2026, BTC trades around $68,460 with recent 24-hour gains of 5.44%, yet JPMorgan sees limited catalysts for sustained price appreciation in the near term. The bank points to depleted retail participation, absence of positive news flow, and fragile macroeconomic conditions as persistent headwinds.

Bitcoin briefly approached $70,000 before retreating, underscoring the market’s struggle to break key resistance levels. Altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin have outperformed Bitcoin recently, suggesting investors are rotating into higher-risk assets rather than maintaining conviction in the flagship cryptocurrency.

The Sustainability Challenge Ahead

The gap between mining costs and Bitcoin’s price remains critical. At $68,460, the current price sits comfortably above the $45,000 break-even threshold, providing reasonable margins for efficient miners. However, should BTC price fall below $60,000, JPMorgan warns of cascading liquidations and potential network stress as more operations become unprofitable.

The mining ecosystem is stabilizing, but around vulnerable price levels. The btc mining cost floor of $45,000 represents where the industry currently stands—leaner, more efficient, and more resilient than before the halving, but facing an uncertain medium-term outlook as macro conditions remain fragile and retail demand shows no signs of recovering.