Trump's final warning exposing deep-rooted conflicts, as the tension between America and Iran rapidly escalates

American President Donald Trump issued a final 10-day ultimatum to Tehran during the Washington meeting on February 19. The warning that “meaningful” agreements must be reached or else face “very serious consequences” highlighted the deep-rooted differences in positions between the United States and Iran. While indirect negotiations between the two countries have shown limited progress, unresolved gaps remain on nuclear and missile issues, as well as regional influence.

Limited Progress and Firm Stances: Are Negotiations Heading to Deadlock?

During the indirect talks held in Switzerland on February 17, both the U.S. and Iran offered starkly contrasting assessments. Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif claimed that discussions showed “good progress” and that both sides had reached mutual understanding on key principles. Conversely, the U.S. was more cautious. Vice President J.D. Vance acknowledged some partial progress but pointed out that Iran continues to reject core U.S. demands.

The U.S. demands are non-negotiable: complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, strict limitations on ballistic missile development, and ending support for regional proxy forces in Syria and Yemen. These issues are highly entrenched, creating significant obstacles to diplomatic progress.

Military Show of Force and Escalating Tensions

As negotiations stall, the U.S. is rapidly bolstering its military presence in the Middle East. Large transport aircraft, fighter jets, refueling tankers, and aircraft carriers are being deployed, with reports suggesting a second carrier strike group may arrive soon. This military buildup indicates Washington is preparing for potential action, though officials remain tight-lipped about specific plans.

Iran has responded strongly to U.S. military pressure. It has conducted joint military exercises with Russia, including live-fire drills that temporarily block the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, Iran has declared that if attacked, U.S. regional bases and assets will be considered “legitimate targets.” While Tehran claims to seek peace, it clearly shows readiness for confrontation.

Domestic Turmoil in Iran Adds Complexity

This geopolitical crisis coincides with widespread unrest within Iran. Massive protests erupted nationwide in January over economic conditions, reminiscent of the 2022 “Women, Life, Freedom” movement. Iranian authorities reportedly implemented extensive internet shutdowns and harsh crackdowns, with human rights groups estimating thousands killed or detained.

Internal instability further complicates U.S.-Iran tensions. Demonstrations in solidarity with Iranian protesters have taken place worldwide, including a large gathering at the Munich Security Conference, where many participants displayed pre-1979 Iranian flags to protest the current clerical-led regime.

Diplomacy or Pressure: Two Countries at a Crossroads

Some opposition leaders, including exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, argue that the U.S.-Iran agreement does not address the fundamental demand for regime change and instead merely entrenches the Islamic Republic’s rule.

The path to a comprehensive deal remains extremely difficult. The U.S. withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement in 2018, and since then, fundamental disagreements over nuclear enrichment, missile capabilities, and regional alliances persist. This deep divide makes swift breakthroughs unlikely.

10-Day Countdown: Diplomatic Victory or Escalation?

With a 10-day deadline set for the end of this month, future developments could go in very different directions. Despite the military posture, diplomatic resolution cannot be entirely ruled out. However, with both sides holding firm to their positions and regional instability increasing, a diplomatic breakthrough appears unlikely at this stage.

This conflict is not merely a U.S.-Iran bilateral issue but a pivotal moment affecting the stability of the entire Middle East and the international order. Within these 10 days, it will become clearer whether dialogue can still lead to a solution or if the confrontation will intensify.