Trump's 10-day final warning escalates US-Iran tensions

Donald Trump issued a stern warning to Tehran. It is a final notice demanding they either agree to a “meaningful” deal or prepare for “really bad things.” This warning was officially issued during the Washington meeting on February 19, leading to serious tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

Rapid Military Buildup Heightens the Risk of War

The U.S. is rapidly increasing its military presence in the Middle East. Cargo planes, fighter jets, refueling tanks, and aircraft carriers are being deployed one after another, and reports indicate that a second carrier group is also expected to arrive soon. This level of military escalation clearly suggests that Washington is preparing for potential military action.

While authorities have not confirmed specific operational plans, the expansion of military presence makes the possibility of war increasingly real. Tensions in the Middle East are escalating daily.

Negotiations in Switzerland Make Progress, but Fundamental Disagreements Remain

On February 17, indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran held in Switzerland produced mixed assessments. Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian stated that discussions showed “good progress” and claimed both sides reached an understanding on guiding principles.

However, the U.S. perspective differs. Vice President J.D. Vance acknowledged some progress but pointed out that Iran continues to reject key American demands. The gap between the two sides remains significant.

The U.S. seeks complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, restrictions on ballistic missile development, and an end to support for regional proxy forces. These core issues remain major obstacles to reaching an agreement.

Iran Faces Domestic Unrest and Diplomatic Crisis

As negotiations continue, Iran is facing new internal unrest. Protests over economic conditions spread nationwide in January, reminiscent of the 2022 “Women, Life, Freedom” movement. Authorities reportedly implemented widespread internet shutdowns and harsh crackdowns. Human rights groups estimate thousands have been killed or detained.

Externally, Iran has responded with displays of strength. It conducted joint military exercises with Russia and has indicated it is willing to temporarily close the Strait of Hormuz during live-fire drills. It also warned the UN that if attacked, U.S. regional bases and assets would be considered “legitimate targets.”

While claiming not to seek war, Tehran has made it clear that it is prepared for confrontation.

Regime Change Debate and Diplomatic Crossroads

Some opposition leaders, including exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, argue that the U.S.-Iran agreement only prolongs the Islamic Republic’s rule and does not address calls for regime change.

However, prospects for a comprehensive deal remain highly uncertain. Since the U.S. withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement in 2018, fundamental disagreements over nuclear enrichment, missile capabilities, and regional alliances persist. Even in subsequent talks, these gaps have not narrowed.

The 10-Day Deadline: A Turning Point for Diplomacy or Confrontation

The 10-day deadline is a critical factor in determining future developments. It will reveal whether this period leads to diplomatic success or escalates tensions into more intense conflict.

While military preparations continue, the possibility of resolving the crisis through negotiations has not entirely disappeared. However, with both sides entrenched and regional instability increasing, quickly finding a breakthrough remains challenging.

This crisis represents a pivotal moment for U.S.-Iran relations and the stability of the Middle East. Whether diplomacy or confrontation prevails will depend on the next 10 days.