The United States is preparing for China, not Iran

The situation is becoming increasingly clear: the US is restructuring its global military posture, with the core goal not being Iran, but engaging in a long-term strategic confrontation with China. Iran is just an excuse; China is the real target.
Washington is not the first to use this tactic. After the 9/11 attacks, the "War on Terror" allowed the US to redeploy large-scale forces, embedding its power deep into the Middle East. This was not only to combat terrorism but also to secure key global energy arteries, mineral basins, and continental crossroads.
Today, a similar repositioning is underway under the banner of "Deterring Tehran War on Terror." However, great powers do not reorganize their global force posture over minor threats. You cannot contain a powerful competitor (China) thousands of miles away, nor can you reshape the Eurasian balance solely from Europe.
The current global strategic focus is shifting eastward. There, trade routes, resource basins, and land corridors determine the flow of power.
For over a century, US hegemony has been built on control of the oceans: controlling chokepoints, shipping lanes, and maritime trade. China’s grand strategy aims to balance this advantage by activating the landmass of Eurasia through the "Silk Road" strategy. Aircraft carriers cannot blockade railways, pipelines, and land corridors. If Beijing succeeds in establishing a fast, secure, and inexpensive "Modern Silk Road," the strategic value of US naval dominance will significantly diminish. As global commerce, energy, and supply chains move via land, maritime power becomes less critical.
📌 Why are Central Asia and its surrounding regions so crucial?
This area is not only a transportation hub but also a vast key mineral reserve. It contains the rare earths, strategic metals, and energy inputs needed for semiconductors, batteries, aerospace systems, and next-generation weapons. Controlling these resources means controlling the industrial foundation of future power. Denying competitors access to these resources is as important as ensuring one’s own resource security.
Equally decisive is the north-south axis centered around Iran:
- Land routes through Iran allow Russia to directly access the Persian Gulf, which is faster and cheaper than vulnerable maritime chokepoints.
- This corridor shortens the distance between the Nordic Eurasian continent and the ice-free ports, reshaping trade geography.
- If China integrates into this network via land routes, a continuous Eurasian system connecting East Asia, Central Asia, Russia, and the Persian Gulf will emerge.
In this scenario, US naval dominance will become strategically limited. The US will face a land power bloc capable of trading, transporting energy, and moving supplies across Eurasia without relying on US-led maritime routes.
📌 Controlling West Asia also achieves multiple objectives:
- Ensuring the security of key mineral basins and energy reserves.
- Controlling critical transportation chokepoints.
- Blocking east-west continental integration.
- Disrupting the north-south connection between Russia and the Persian Gulf.
- Positioning at the crossroads of three continents.
- Preventing the formation of a self-sufficient Eurasian economic zone.
Within this framework, Iran is not the endgame but the gateway.
The so-called regional crisis management is essentially a positioning game among great powers. This struggle is not about a single country, a conflict, or a nuclear program, but about whether the 21st century will be shaped by "maritime empires" or "land-based powers."
If China successfully activates land routes, and Russia gains southern access through Iran, a large, integrated Eurasian system will emerge, largely immune to maritime pressure. By then, the US may still control the oceans but will no longer be able to dominate the entire world system.
The game in West Asia is not the main battlefield; it is only the deployment phase before the truly critical war erupts.
Zen teachings suggest that in today’s era of great international struggles, China cannot rely solely on Confucian diplomacy; it must show strength and take decisive action, because as the two most powerful nations on this planet, China and the US, a confrontation is inevitable. 🙏
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