Ethereum Price Prediction: What Will Happen to ETH in March 2026

Ethereum enters March after a difficult February with nearly a 20% decline. ETH has now experienced six consecutive months of decline since September 2025, a record in the history of this coin. If March ends in the red, the downtrend will extend to seven months, further solidifying the record for the longest bearish streak Ethereum has ever seen. Although March typically brings an average profit of nearly 9% for ETH, current conditions suggest that history may not be very helpful. Here’s what the data indicates. Weekly Ranking Breaks Down Even in February 2025, with a 32% drop, there was an immediate recovery attempt in the following months. This time, the sell-off has been relentless, and the weekly chart explains why. Six months of consecutive declines, excluding March (which is still forming), is an impressive feat for a bear market.

Since April 7, 2025, Ethereum’s price has been trading within a head and shoulders pattern. This is a bearish reversal structure, where a central peak (the head) is flanked by two lower peaks (the shoulders). The breakout was confirmed in early January 2026, and it was not a minor dip. It was a structural break.

Forecasts from this pattern suggest a decline of about 53% from the breakout line, targeting around $1,320. Although that price level hasn’t been reached yet, the pattern remains active and unresolved.

The situation worsens as two additional bearish crossover signals are forming on the weekly exponential moving averages (EMAs), which smooth out price data to highlight trend directions. The 50-week EMA is approaching the 100-week EMA, and the 20-week EMA is nearing the 200-week EMA. The most recent crossover — when the 20-week EMA fell below the 50-week EMA in early January — preceded a 46% correction.

If these new crossover signals are confirmed, they will reinforce the bearish trend on higher timeframes. Outflows from Ethereum ETF Do Not Pose Barriers for Institutions Unlike Bitcoin, where outflows from spot ETFs are decreasing, the outlook for Ethereum ETFs is worsening. February saw a net outflow of $369.87 million — higher than January’s $353.20 million. This reversed the short-lived improvement trend, as outflows in January had decreased from December’s $616.82 million. This marks the fourth consecutive month of outflows since November 2025, when $1.42 billion was withdrawn. The month with the closest inflows was October 2025, with $569.92 million.

For ETH price, this means there is no stable institutional demand forming before March. Capital that previously supported ETH through ETF channels is leaving, and unlike Bitcoin, this outflow rate is not slowing down. While retail investors are buying, the situation is becoming more complex. In this declining market, one on-chain indicator stands out. Holders of Ethereum (wallets holding ETH for 155 days or more) have significantly increased their buying activity. On February 21, the net position change indicator was modest at +6,829 ETH. By March 1, this had surged to +252,142 ETH, a massive 3,500% increase, seemingly a strong signal.

However, the context complicates this signal. The last major accumulation by long-term holders began on December 26, 2025, when ETH was around $2,920. They continued accumulating as the price rose to $3,350 on January 14. Then, the weekly EMA crossover occurred, and the price started to decline sharply. These holders kept buying during the downturn. Their net position turned negative only on February 2, when the price had fallen to $2,340.

Thus, many long-term holders may be trapped between $2,340 and $3,350. The current spike in buying activity might not reflect renewed confidence but rather a cost-averaging effort to reduce the average purchase price and break even. Retail investors should be cautious about blindly following this signal — the motivation behind the buying could be survival, not strategy. But There Are Reasons They Are Buying; And Key Ethereum Price Levels to Watch If long-term holders are stuck, why are they increasing their market exposure now, in a weak market? The 12-hour chart may hold the answer. From February 12 to 28, ETH made lower lows while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — a momentum indicator — made higher lows. This creates a bullish divergence, signaling that selling momentum is weakening even as the price declines. This divergence triggered a recovery, with ETH rising about 11.7% from its low. More importantly, this bounce is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 12-hour chart; a bullish reversal structure. This might be what holders are waiting for — a short-term breakout that could help recover some of January’s losses. The technical setup is real, and the RSI divergence has been confirmed by the initial rebound.

Support levels are around $2,160–$2,180. If ETH closes above this zone, a roughly 19% rally toward about $2,590 is expected. Fibonacci extension levels at $2,050 and $2,400 will serve as intermediate resistance zones. Conversely, if the price drops below $1,830, the inverse head and shoulders pattern weakens. A close below $1,790 would invalidate the recovery thesis, and the weekly head and shoulders pattern would reaffirm dominance — bringing the $1,320 target back into focus.

The most likely scenario for March reflects Bitcoin’s structure: an attempt to rally driven by the 12-hour pattern and accumulation by holders, followed by downward pressure as the weekly trend remains strong. The recovery is real but faces a much larger decline.