The fundamental supply and demand dynamics of the #原油价格飙升 market are the most basic anchor for oil prices, while geopolitical factors are the main catalysts for short-term fluctuations. This surge in oil prices is primarily driven by geopolitical sentiment and expectations of channel blockades, but the supply and demand fundamentals have not reversed. In the long term, global oil supply and demand remain stable. Once the Strait of Hormuz shipping resumes, the risk premium will quickly be unwound.

From the current situation, it depends on the conflict's trajectory, intensity, and the duration of the Hormuz Strait blockade to determine where oil prices will go next.
If the conflict is limited, the Strait is reopened within 1–2 weeks, and shipping gradually resumes, Brent crude oil prices could rise to $80–90 per barrel. After several weeks, with OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) increasing production, and the conflict ending, prices are likely to quickly fall back to $70–75 per barrel, reflecting the supply and demand fundamentals, including a slight geopolitical risk premium.
If the conflict escalates further, with the Strait being blocked for 1–4 weeks, tankers unable to pass, and Middle Eastern oil exports halted, Brent crude could surge above $100 per barrel and fluctuate at high levels. In an extreme scenario, with full blockade and attacks on oil production facilities, leading to a supply gap of 15 million barrels per day, prices could skyrocket to $120–150 per barrel or even higher, and stay elevated for a longer period. A global energy crisis could even recur. However, the probability of such a scenario is relatively low.

Based on the current market performance, market expectations for the persistence of this military conflict are not very strong, and there has been no violent surge or sharp spike. For example, on March 2, Brent crude briefly hit $82 per barrel intraday but closed back at $78, indicating a significant intraday pullback. This suggests that market participants expect the blockade to be short-term, likely not lasting more than a month.

This outlook is based on another consensus: that the Trump administration in the U.S. will not accept sustained high oil prices. They aim to keep prices at a moderate to low level to serve their interests.
On the first day of his second term, President Trump signed an executive order declaring a national energy emergency, explicitly stating that high energy prices have a serious impact on Americans, especially low-income and fixed-income groups.
Additionally, as the world’s largest oil consumer and a nation heavily reliant on transportation, U.S. citizens are very sensitive to oil prices. Even considering midterm elections, controlling inflation and maintaining oil prices at moderate to low levels will remain a priority for the Trump administration.
By late February, before military strikes, the average retail gasoline price (including tax) in the U.S. had already exceeded $3 per gallon, which is the upper limit of what Americans consider a reasonable price.
Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the Trump administration will allow oil prices to spike significantly due to U.S. actions against Iran, which would sharply raise overall prices. Iran’s oil production and export facilities are unlikely to be targeted. On March 1, President Trump stated that military action against Iran could last about four weeks but might be shorter, and he agreed to engage in dialogue with Iran’s new leadership. This indicates that the U.S. will continue to use a strategy of “pressure to induce change, pressure to facilitate talks.”

Although the probability is small, an extreme scenario cannot be completely ruled out—if the blockade of the Hormuz Strait lasts more than a month, extending to two or three months, the situation would change dramatically. Crude oil prices could rise above $100 per barrel, possibly with a lack of market liquidity, as this short-term supply gap cannot be easily filled. Currently, the main countries with surplus oil capacity are the Gulf states, while Russia is under Western sanctions.
Some importing countries could temporarily increase domestic production, but such short-term increases could disrupt oilfield operations and lead to destructive extraction practices.