Geopolitical tensions are driving increased risks in the Strait of Hormuz and maritime shipping routes, leading to suspension or obstruction of vessel activities. Some analyses suggest that disruptions in energy shipping could significantly boost energy premiums.

1. Impact on the Crude Oil Market
Crude oil prices reacted instantly, with international oil prices rising sharply at the onset of the conflict: WTI and Brent both experienced gap-up increases during the opening phase, with some periods seeing gains of over 7%. Some forecasts estimate that in the worst-case scenario, oil prices could surge past $80 per barrel, even if fundamental supply and demand remain unchanged, as risk premiums alone are sufficient to elevate prices.
The main logic behind the rally is that the Middle East, as a core global energy supplier, has its supply fears or channel risks (such as Hormuz) priced in by the market in advance. Even if actual production remains intact, shipping disruptions and rising insurance costs have already provided price support.
Risks and Medium-term Outlook
If the situation quickly eases and shipping lanes reopen, prices may face downward pressure. However, if the conflict prolongs and supply chains continue to be disrupted, the medium-term upside for oil prices could be significant, potentially raising inflation expectations.

Summary: Crude oil is one of the most directly benefited asset classes from this round of geopolitical conflict. In the short term, risk premiums have surged significantly; in the medium term, the focus shifts to supply chain risks and the duration of the conflict.

2. Impact on the Gold Market
Safe-haven buying has driven gold prices to rise over 2% multiple times, reaching multi-week highs amid heightened risk aversion.
Traditional safe-haven assets (gold, silver) quickly attracted capital inflows following the outbreak of hostilities. Technical sentiment and volatility analyses suggest that gold is near a key resistance level, with short-term fluctuations possible, but the long-term safe-haven logic still supports upside potential. The safe-haven attribute is fundamentally linked to gold’s high negative correlation with global risk events; rising panic often enhances its appeal. Especially when war expectations influence inflation outlooks or intensify central bank holdings in safe assets, capital may further increase gold positions.

Summary: As an extreme safe-haven asset, gold typically performs strongly during geopolitical tensions, with recent rapid capital inflows and price appreciation.

3. Impact on Cryptocurrency (Crypto)
Short-term reaction: Sentiment-driven volatility caused Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies to experience brief sharp fluctuations and declines following the outbreak of conflict, accompanied by liquidation events. This is a typical “risk asset first decline, then supported by uncertainty” structure: during panic, capital exits; if macro funds shift or the dollar weakens, pressure may ease. Investor behavior logic suggests that in extreme risk events, cryptocurrencies are often viewed as “risk assets,” and short-term safe-haven sentiment may lead to capital withdrawal, especially from highly leveraged positions. Research and historical events indicate that geopolitical uncertainty often causes investors to reduce crypto allocations temporarily and shift toward traditional safe assets (gold, US Treasuries, etc.).

Medium-term perspective: If the situation eases and global funds continue to seek risk premium assets, cryptocurrencies are expected to gradually rebound with risk appetite recovery. However, if the conflict escalates long-term, leading to tightening global financial conditions (interest rate expectations, supply-demand shocks, etc.), cryptocurrencies could face greater macroeconomic suppression.

Summary: The crypto market generally exhibits high volatility and short-term declines during geopolitical conflicts. The medium-term direction depends on overall risk appetite and macrofunding structures.