An old fisherman is fishing by the sea, and a young man asks him: "Why don't you use a net?" The old fisherman says: "When there are many fish, a hook is enough."

Now we have reached the most critical moment in history. After five consecutive declines, the sixth month has arrived. In BTC's entire history, there has only been one six-month decline.

The three top institutional research reports I subscribe to reached the same conclusion within the same week: a 70% chance of a technical rebound for BTC in March.

This is no coincidence.

After five months of consecutive declines, some unseen data is quietly changing. And most people are still waiting to buy the dip.

BTC has only experienced a six-month decline once in history. Just once.

Now it’s the sixth month.

Statistics tell us that the probability of mean reversion is rapidly increasing. But statistics alone aren’t convincing enough until I saw these four data points.

First signal: 62.5k held three times

Recently, a dip to 60k created the largest realized loss in years. In plain language: those who needed to cut losses already did.

Selling pressure has basically been cleared.

Second signal: Secrets of the options market

Institutions are quietly buying Call options.

In the past 24 hours, Call purchases accounted for 34%, while Puts only 17%. Open interest in bullish options around 75k has surged.

These are moves by large funds, not retail investors.

Third signal: ETF capital flow

Last week, net inflow was $800 million, the second-largest since October last year. More importantly, Coinbase’s premium shifted from negative to positive.

Disappearance of negative premium means selling pressure in the US is cooling off.

Fourth signal: Technical resonance

RSI and stochastic indicators are starting to rise, but the price is still sideways. This kind of divergence often signals that a reversal window is opening.

Yesterday, I tested an options strategy near 70k, and the spread combination nearly doubled.

But there’s a deeper logic here.

After five months of decline, everyone is waiting for further drops to buy the dip. Short positions are extremely crowded, and marginal gains from shorting have significantly decreased.

The most painful path for the market is often to leave longs on the sidelines and force short-sellers to cover.

If a rebound comes first, who will suffer more?

Those waiting to buy at 40k or 30k.

Those continuing to short around 65k.

The question now isn’t whether it will go up, but whether it can effectively break through 70k.

If it breaks above 70k and holds, that’s an important signal confirming a medium-term bottom. If it can’t, it will continue to oscillate in the lower range.

My plan is simple: not betting on the return of the bull market narrative, only betting on a technical rebound. Using options to manage risk, not going all-in on spot.

Remember, this is just a bet on a technical rebound, not a bet on the bull market returning. The US stock market is still high, and the macro environment remains complex.

But sometimes, making money is that simple: when everyone is waiting for lower prices, take the lead and position for the rebound.

Patience means using time to smooth out uncertainty. But when the opportunity comes, act when it’s time. #深度创作营 $BTC