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Last night's non-farm payroll data was positive, but the market initially dropped before rebounding
Data snapshot: Employment unexpectedly decreased by 92,000 (expected to increase), and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%.
Conventional interpretation: Cooling job market -> Economic stimulus needed -> Fed rate cut expectations rise.
Actual market feedback: Traders increased the probability of a rate cut in June from 35% to about 50%. This is positive for risk assets.
Key turning point — the market’s “stagflation”:
The data didn’t immediately boost Bitcoin, possibly because of escalating conflicts, which caused oil prices to surge by 17%.
An extremely contradictory scenario: economic slowdown (poor employment) + rising inflation (oil prices soaring). The market instantly shifted from “rate cut” trading to “stagflation” trading. In this environment, rate cut expectations might be pushed back.
We are now back at a bottom that needs to be verified, to see if this decline is just a dead cat bounce or truly weak. 🫓 Watching the position around 72,000.