Airstrikes + Non-Farm Payrolls Double Pressure: What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around 68,200, with many people wondering if it can bottom out or rebound to 70,000. But at this moment, trying to bottom fish is no different from "raiding the house."
From the news perspective, Trump's tough stance on Iran has triggered turmoil in the global crude oil market. Brent crude oil surged, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted, and one-fifth of the world's oil supply faces a crisis. War pushes oil prices higher, inflation becomes harder to control, the Federal Reserve dares not cut interest rates, the dollar strengthens, and Bitcoin funds are being drained. Moreover, the US February non-farm payroll data was bleak, with employment decreasing by 92,000 and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. However, this did not lead to expectations of rate cuts; instead, rising oil prices have put the Fed at risk of stagflation. As long as oil prices do not fall, Bitcoin will struggle to gain momentum—this is a reshaping of the medium-term logic.

From a technical perspective, the outlook is also not optimistic. On March 5, a Evening Star reversal signal appeared, MACD showed a death cross, and the yellow and white lines were below the zero axis, with volume continuously shrinking. The bears are clearly in control, and support levels under a bearish trend are fragile; the main force is likely to break through them.

In terms of trading strategy, for those with heavy positions, sell every 200 points rebound above 68,000, and add positions below 66,000; for short positions, set a stop loss at 68,500, with an initial target of 67,500. If it breaks below 67,300, consider adding to the short; for those looking to bottom fish, 66,000 is the first key level to consider.

Personally, I think don’t expect Bitcoin to reach 70,000 or even 100,000. Currently, around 70,000 is full of trapped positions. 67,300 is the first stop, 66,000 is the second. If it cannot hold 66,000, a bear market may turn, and the probability of a V-shaped reversal is extremely low—more likely to be sideways or a decline. Market opportunities are always present, but it’s important to operate calmly, control your hands, manage your positions well, and wait for the right-side signals. #美伊局势影响 $BTC