Date: March 8, 2026

Short-term Impact

1）
· Event: Iran launches a drone attack near the Strait of Hormuz, hitting and igniting an oil tanker, sharply increasing global shipping safety risks. 
· Impact: Energy transportation threatened → Rapid rise in oil prices, benefiting shipping insurance and oil shipping stocks; increased volatility in global risk assets.
· Focus: Whether more oil tankers are attacked, and if U.S. Navy escort operations are initiated.

2）
· Event: Kuwait announces reduced crude oil production due to the Middle East war and declares some exports as "force majeure." 
· Impact: Further tightening of Middle Eastern supply → Expansion of crude oil supply shocks, reinforcing upward pressure on oil prices.
· Focus: Whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE follow suit with production cuts or suspend exports.

3）
· Event: Iran warns it will continue to target U.S. military bases in the Middle East and threatens European intervention. 
· Impact: Increased likelihood of conflict escalation → Rising risk aversion, increased demand for gold and the U.S. dollar.
· Focus: Whether NATO or European countries will formally intervene militarily.

4）
· Event: Israel conducts airstrikes on Tehran oil storage facilities, causing a large fire. This is the first direct attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure in the conflict. 
· Impact: Rising risks to energy infrastructure → Further expansion of oil price risk premiums.
· Focus: Whether more refineries, storage facilities, or LNG facilities are attacked.

5）
· Event: Russia is exposed to providing intelligence support to Iran, involving U.S. military asset locations. 
· Impact: Signs of major power rivalry emerging in the conflict → Increased global market risk aversion.
· Focus: Whether the U.S. will expand sanctions or military deployments against Russia.

6）
· Event: Major shipping companies suspend Middle East routes, forcing global energy and freight routes to adjust. 
· Impact: Rising global logistics costs → Increased inflationary pressures, rising shipping prices.
· Focus: Whether more shipping companies will suspend routes, and changes in global freight indices.

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Long-term Impact

7）
· Event: Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declines significantly, with some periods almost no ships passing. 
· Impact: About 20% of global oil and gas transportation threatened → Long-term instability in the energy supply system.
· Focus: Whether stable navigation resumes or a military escort mechanism is established.

8）
· Event: The Middle East war has disrupted approximately 20% of global crude oil and natural gas production. 
· Impact: Global energy supply structure forced to adjust → Long-term upward shift in oil price baselines.
· Focus: The speed at which major oil-producing countries restore production.

9）
· Event: Some countries begin considering easing sanctions on Russian crude oil to fill supply gaps. 
· Impact: Reallocation of global energy trade patterns → Increased demand and price support for Russian oil.
· Focus: Whether the U.S. and Europe will formally adjust sanctions policies.

10）
· Event: The Middle East war forces global shipping routes to be rerouted, with many routes detouring. 
· Impact: Extended transportation cycles → Rising costs in global supply chains, inflation in manufacturing and trade.
· Focus: Whether shipping companies will permanently abandon Persian Gulf routes.