3.8 Bitcoin Auntie's Evening Strategy

Over the past two days of the weekend, the market has probably left many people confused. In the past, weekends meant the US stock market was closed, liquidity was thin, and the market typically oscillated within a small range, just killing time. But now, it's completely different. Bitcoin moves by thousands of points at a time, and Auntie fluctuates by hundreds of points. The pace is ridiculously fast, and the direction is becoming increasingly difficult to judge.

Looking back, last week's violent surge was actually more like a carefully designed trap to attract long positions. Many thought the market was about to take off again, but after just a couple of days of excitement, the market started to decline steadily. Essentially, this move was a classic pump to lure in bulls, followed by a shakeout to clear out emotions and leverage.

From the current market structure, the 4-hour Bollinger Bands are clearly opening downward, with the price center of gravity continuously shifting lower. Bullish volume is also noticeably lagging behind the pace, and rebounds are mostly fleeting. On the daily chart, the price has already broken below the middle band support, which is a very clear signal — bulls currently have no control over the market.

So the idea is simple: don’t be fooled by small rebounds. Rebounds are not reversals; they are just better entry points for short positions. The most cost-effective strategy at this stage is still to go short on rallies and follow the bearish trend. The market may fluctuate repeatedly, but the trend does not lie. Chasing longs now will likely just fuel the market.

Personal Suggestions
Bitcoin: Enter short at 67,500-68,500, target lower levels at 66,000 and 65,000. If 65,000 holds, then reverse to long.
Auntie: Enter short at 1,950-1,980, target lower levels at 1,880 and 1,850. If 1,850 holds, then reverse to long.
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