#加密市场小幅下跌 When will Bitcoin explode in 2026?

Currently, market opinions on Bitcoin's trend mainly fall into two camps: "Expecting a recovery" and "Continuing to bottom out"!

Expecting a recovery camp: Bitcoin is building a bottom, gradually rebounding in the second half of the year. According to the four-year cycle pattern, 2026 is an "adjustment year" in the halving cycle. The decline is nearing its end, and a recovery phase is expected.
Standard Chartered Bank: The target price for Bitcoin by the end of the year is $100,000. Although expectations have been lowered, they still believe the price can rebound to $100,000 by year-end.
JPMorgan: Long-term bullish target of $266,000. Optimistic about institutional capital inflows and clearer regulations, believing that Bitcoin's long-term value is undervalued compared to gold.

Continuing to bottom out camp: Bitcoin may decline another 30% this year. Bitcoin has entered a deep bear market, and retail panic along with limited institutional adoption will intensify downward pressure. In the short term, it could fall to $50,000 amid ETF capital outflows and macroeconomic headwinds. Investors are more likely to cut losses than to buy the dip.

Market forecast: Data from the prediction market Polymarket shows that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of 2026 is only 11%.

Bitcoin's "Four-Year Cycle" Pattern: Is the bear market about to end?
This is the core rationale of the optimistic camp. VanEck's CEO pointed out that Bitcoin's historical pattern is "rising for three consecutive years, with a significant correction in the fourth year," and 2026 is exactly this "fourth year." He believes the current decline marks the end of the cycle, with the market building a bottom, which is a positive sign of recovery.
FXGT also believes that the price stabilizing around $68,000 indicates that the bear market gloom is beginning to lift.

Macroeconomic Environment and Capital Flows: Short-term pressures remain Despite the cycle pattern, current difficulties are very real.
Standard Chartered analysts emphasized that many ETF investors' average buy-in price is around $90,000. Currently, the price has caused about a 25% loss, making them more likely to reduce investments rather than buy during a market decline. Additionally, macroeconomic uncertainties have led investors to shift toward traditional safe-haven assets like gold, while Bitcoin exhibits high-risk characteristics and is more closely correlated with falling stock markets.

Overall, there is no consensus in the market yet on whether Bitcoin in 2026 will "explode" or "bottom out."
In the short term, geopolitical issues, macro policies, and ETF capital flows are key variables influencing prices; in the long term, the four-year cycle pattern and the scarcity of supply give bullish investors confidence.
Since touching $74,000 early on the 5th, Bitcoin has been declining, currently trading at $66,940. Despite the still subdued market sentiment, the peak of the most extreme "capitulation sell-off" has passed, and the market is steadily stabilizing. In just the first week of March, 47,700 BTC were withdrawn from exchanges. Notably, on March 4th, 31,900 BTC were withdrawn from Bitfinex in a single day, worth about $2.26 billion, the largest single-day withdrawal since June 2025.
Meanwhile, $1.1 billion in stablecoins flowed into exchanges this week.
Combined, these data points show clear signs of spot buying: large investors are actively accumulating at the $70,000 level and transferring Bitcoin into cold wallets for long-term storage. This type of activity helps alleviate supply pressure in the spot market. Simply put, although current on-chain indicators haven't yet given a green light for a bottom, the data shows that whales have started slowly accumulating, and the market will gradually improve. Even if there are some pullbacks later, it won't be a massive crash. Reduced selling pressure, market maturity, and rising enthusiasm will eventually lead to a breakout.