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UNPOPULAR OPINION: Oil price spikes are NOT the stock market killer everyone thinks
$SPX returned +14.6% on average during oil surges.
Wait, what?
Here's what Wall Street won't tell you:
- 1973 Oil Embargo → SPX -38% (expected)
- 1990 Gulf War → SPX -12% (expected)
- 2008-09 Recovery → SPX +64% (wait...)
- 2020-21 Recovery → SPX +44% (huh?)
- 1999-2000 → SPX +23% (interesting...)
The real question isn't "is oil surging?"
It's "WHY is oil surging?"
Supply shock from war/embargo? Panic and sell.
Demand surge from economic recovery? Buy the dip.
Stop trading headlines. Start trading context!