#国际油价突破100美元

The global energy market is experiencing an earthquake. Due to the escalation of US-Israel military actions against Iran and the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, $XTIUSD crude oil prices surged over 25 intraday, reaching a high of $114.63, while Brent crude also broke through $116. This is the first time since 2022 that oil prices have returned to the hundred-dollar era, with a single-day increase setting a historic record.

Oil production in southern Iraq has plummeted by 70%, and Kuwait has declared force majeure to reduce output. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes, has come to a standstill, and the market is pricing in supply disruption rather than reduction. This pulse-like surge has caused stock markets in Japan and South Korea to plummet over 6%, and global risk aversion has reached its peak.

Currently, oil prices have detached from supply and demand fundamentals and are entirely driven by geopolitical risk premiums. In the short term, if the situation shows no signs of easing, $130-$150 is not out of reach; but caution is advised, as the EIA previously forecasted an average price of only $58 in 2026. This indicates that current prices contain a high level of panic premium, and once diplomatic negotiations show signs of progress, the risk of a sharp reversal from these high levels is significant. Entering the market now is a typical "high odds betting" scenario. Ordinary investors should avoid blindly going all-in chasing highs and be wary of an epic retracement.