JPMorgan warns that US stocks could fall 10% due to Middle East conflict; the market is not yet prepared

Gate News Report, March 9 — JPMorgan’s trading division stated that the Iran conflict could trigger a decline of up to 10% in the S&P 500 Index (the benchmark for the U.S. stock market) from its high, and U.S. stock traders are not yet prepared for this. Andrew Tyler, head of global market intelligence at JPMorgan, said on Monday that due to no signs of easing in the Middle East conflict and oil prices breaking above $100 per barrel, he has turned tactically bearish on U.S. stocks. If a pullback occurs, it would mean the S&P 500 could fall about 10% from its peak to around 6,270 points, roughly 7% below last Friday’s close. Tyler stated that investors are currently not positioned for a decline, describing their overall stance as neutral with a lack of extreme risk-off moves. Because traders expect the situation to ease, energy stocks were net sold last week. However, after several Gulf countries cut production, oil prices surged above $100 per barrel, raising concerns about long-term supply shocks and stagflation risks. Tyler believes that if the conflict does not persist, these risks could quickly diminish. “Once there is a clear path to de-escalation, this tactical view will end, as the underlying macro fundamentals still support risk assets.”