170,000 people—this time, layoffs in Silicon Valley have surpassed those during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Author | Huálín Wǔwáng

Editor | Jìng Yǔ

The US employment data for February 2026 has been released, and one number caused economists to fall silent for a moment—the rate of job loss in the tech industry is surpassing levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic.

These two moments, over the past twenty years, have represented the most severe shocks to the US economy.

And now, the tech industry is using layoffs to crush both of them underfoot.

The question is, if 2008 was when banks collapsed, and 2020 was when the pandemic lockdowns hit, what has collapsed in 2026?

01 The bubble has burst, but not the valuation bubble

Rewind to 2020–2022. The explosion of digital demand driven by the pandemic, combined with the Federal Reserve’s near-zero interest rates and cheap capital, made tech companies suddenly discover a gold mine, leading to frantic expansion. Some leading companies doubled or even tripled their employee numbers within two or three years.

The logic at the time was simple—growth was the only KPI, burning money was the only way, and headcount was the only execution tool.

Then interest rates rose. The foundation of the growth logic loosened, valuations began to decline, investors became cautious, and layoffs quietly started at the end of 2022. But back then, most people still thought this was just an “adjustment,” and that everything would return once the market improved.

But it didn’t.

In 2025, the global tech industry cut approximately 245,000 jobs. US companies contributed nearly 70% of that, over 170,000 jobs.

Entering 2026, not only has the momentum not slowed, but it’s accelerating—over 30,000 layoffs in just the first six weeks, with more than 80% coming from US companies.

After Amazon recorded a record $71.69 billion in revenue in 2025, it announced the elimination of 16,000 corporate jobs in 2026, accounting for more than half of all announced tech layoffs.

Block CEO Jack Dorsey wrote in a letter to shareholders, “Smaller teams using the tools we’re building can do more and do it better.” Autodesk and Salesforce each cut about 1,000 jobs earlier this year.

Note this detail—most of these companies are still profitable, some even hitting revenue records.

This isn’t a life-or-death layoff; it’s a proactive choice.

02 AI as the scapegoat?

Every large-scale layoff needs a narrative to explain it.

This round, AI has become the most convenient scapegoat.

“Layoffs due to AI automation”—this phrase sounds both technically advanced and era-appropriate, and seems irrefutable. But the data tells a different story.

According to RationalFX, out of approximately 245,000 tech layoffs worldwide, only about 69,800 (roughly 28.5%) can be directly attributed to AI and automation adoption.

In other words, over 70% of layoffs have other reasons behind them.

IBM CEO Arvind Krishna directly pointed out this issue: “From 2020 to 2023, some companies increased their staff by 30% to 100%, which is just the adjustment needed for the company.” He didn’t blame AI but pointed to a more straightforward truth—overhiring leading to a kind of economic hangover.

Of course, AI isn’t entirely innocent. Its role is more subtle than “direct replacement”—AI makes companies realize that many jobs don’t need to exist at all. It’s not about firing someone directly; it’s about management redoing the math and discovering the numbers don’t add up.

This logic is more brutal and harder to refute. It’s difficult to tell a company, “My job can’t be done by AI,” when it actually is.

Some analysts have described this round of layoffs as a “structural reset,” rather than “short-term cost correction.” The difference is that the latter implies the market will bounce back, while the former means those jobs will never return.

This is the most important factor in understanding this tech winter.

Previous large-scale layoffs were essentially temporary demand contractions. Companies waited for economic recovery, and once it happened, those same roles would reopen. But this time, many eliminated positions are being permanently redesigned—focused around AI-first workflows, with companies rebuilding their organizational structures.

Daniele Grassi, CEO of General Assembly, issued a sober warning: companies are cutting jobs while increasing AI investments, creating a skills gap that will ultimately slow down their transformation.

In other words, layoffs are creating new risks.

Market data shows a strange polarization—demand for AI-related roles is surging, while traditional general tech roles are shrinking. “Technology is both growing and contracting,” and both are happening simultaneously, just affecting different people.

If you are an engineer with AI expertise, prompt engineering skills, or the ability to optimize large model inference costs, 2026 might be the best job market in recent years for you.

If you are a general product operator, middle-office engineer, or traditional salesperson, you may face a rapidly shrinking market.

This isn’t an industry-wide decline but a rapid redefinition of “valuable people.”

03 How cold will this winter get?

Oxford Economics Chief Economist Adam Slater’s warning is sobering—if the tech sector continues to decline, US GDP growth in 2026 could fall to 0.8%, edging close to recession.

Excluding tech investments, US growth in the first half of 2025 was almost stagnant.

The US economy’s dependence on technology has become so deep that a single disruption can affect the entire system.

But there’s another voice. Salesforce industry analysts point out that, compared to 2024, the absolute number of layoffs in 2025 actually decreased by about 20%. The narrative of “2025 as a disaster year” doesn’t fully hold up based on the data.

This wave of layoffs seems more like an indefinite transitional period rather than a downward slide with a clear bottom.

Companies are using layoffs to “free up space,” space for AI tools, leaner teams, and higher efficiency. This logic will hold until some boundary is reached—perhaps regulation, technical bottlenecks, or consumer reactions.

Jack Dorsey’s phrase “smaller teams doing more” somewhat reflects the current collective belief in the industry. The question is, when everyone is shrinking, who will support the next “bigger”?

What the tech industry is experiencing isn’t just a typical downturn but a fundamental questioning of “what role people play in the system.”

Unfortunately, layoffs alone cannot answer this question.