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Is gold really doomed? Not at all!
The current decline is merely a short-term market sentiment and capital game, not a trend reversal. The three core reasons supporting gold's long-term value remain unchanged:
1. Central banks' continuous accumulation
Global central banks are consistently buying large amounts of gold, which is not short-term speculation but part of a long-term strategy for national reserve security and de-dollarization. China's central bank has increased holdings for 15 consecutive months. Such "national team" funds tend to buy more as prices fall, forming the strongest support for gold's bottom.
2. Geopolitical risks continue to ferment
The situation in the Middle East shows no signs of easing, and global confrontation patterns are deepening. In an environment of increasing uncertainty, gold's role as the ultimate safe-haven asset will only become more prominent.
3. The hidden risks of the US dollar's credibility are hard to eliminate
The US national debt has surpassed $38.5 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion. The long-term high-debt model will inevitably erode the credibility of the dollar. Gold, with no credit risk and no reliance on sovereignty, has a solid fundamental value.
Short-term fluctuations are just the dollar's temporary safe-haven sentiment advantage. Once the market digests the oil price shock and sees the Fed's dilemma (raising interest rates suppresses the economy, lowering rates is hard to control inflation), capital is likely to flow back into gold.