#CrudeOilPriceRose

Oil markets are experiencing the biggest supply shock in history!
Oman's Mina Al Fahal oil export terminal has been completely evacuated, two oil tankers in Iraq have been attacked, and all Iraqi oil ports have ceased operations. Due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, global supply has fallen by 8 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has decided to take immediate action against this "largest supply disruption in history," releasing a total of 400 million barrels of strategic reserves from member countries (the US contribution being 172 million barrels).

The result? Brent crude oil briefly surpassed $101 with a 6.6% increase, currently trading in the $98-99 range; WTI is similarly trading at $90-93. A full-blown battle has begun between bulls and bears!

1️⃣ Diplomatic Situation:
Iran Announces Ceasefire Terms, Is a US-Iran Agreement Possible?
Iran, through mediators, laid out its clear conditions: “No future attacks from the US and Israel, recognition of Iran’s legitimate rights, compensation payments, and international guarantees.” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi explicitly rejected the ceasefire, stating, “A ceasefire would be meaningless if there were new attacks in a few months.” President Masoud Pezeshkian also emphasized that peace is only possible with “our rights and compensation.”

Offers presented twice by Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff were rejected by Iran. Tehran is currently unwilling to negotiate without declaring “victory.” According to analysts, the likelihood of an agreement in the short term is low; Iran’s defensive stance and threat to close Hormuz are making diplomacy difficult. An agreement seems possible only with “permanent guarantees.”

2️⃣ Oil War:
Will Bulls or Bears Win?
My Next Trend Prediction
I support the bulls! In the short term, prices may test the $105-110 levels; Low flow in Hormuz (10% of normal) and port closures are severely reducing supply. However, with the IEA's 400 million barrel reserve coming online (approximately 20 days' worth of Hormuz flow) and the potential end of the short-term crisis, prices are expected to fall to the $60-70 range in the medium to long term.

My prediction:
The rally above $100 will continue this weekend, but bears will take over if IEA deliveries accelerate. The oil war points to bulls in the short term and a balance in the long term!

3️⃣ Crypto Trends:
How Will Oil Fund Flow Affect Crypto?

The oil rally directly negatively impacts the crypto market. Fear of inflation may delay Fed interest rate cuts, reducing risk appetite. Bitcoin ETF flows fell to $619 million this week, and BTC remains under pressure in the $67-68 thousand range. Ethereum is also struggling around $2,000.

Funds are shifting towards energy and commodities; oil is up over 25% while the total crypto market capitalization is stuck around $2.25 trillion. My analysis: In the short term, BTC may test the $61-65 thousand support level. However, if the conflict is short-lived and IEA reserves soften prices, crypto will recover. In the long term, the oil-crypto correlation is increasing; Fed policy and bond yields are now determining the direction of BTC.

This sudden crisis in the Middle East is driving oil to historical highs while also creating volatility in crypto. Seize oil opportunities with Gate TradFi in one click, and take positions in both TradFi and crypto!

🤔Do you think there will be a ceasefire?
🤔Where will oil go?
🤔Will crypto be affected?
✍️Share your opinions in the comments 👇

Seize oil opportunities with Gate TradFi
👉 https://www.gate.com/tradfi