Today will release PCE inflation data and GDP growth figures. PCE is the Federal Reserve's primary inflation indicator and is expected to remain steady at 2.9%, the same as last month. Any result higher than this would support a tighter policy and a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve at next week's FOMC meeting, as it would indicate that inflation was already rising before the recent surge in oil prices.

Based on the strength of the dollar, the market is currently speculating on this, especially since CPI and PCE are expected to increase next month. Remember that this week's data does not account for the rise in energy and transportation costs due to current geopolitical tensions. Regarding GDP growth, it is expected to be positive but still relatively low compared to previous months, with an estimate of 1.4%.

Any result higher than this would suggest that the U.S. economy is performing better than expected, giving the Federal Reserve more room to combat inflation. If it comes in lower than this, it indicates that the Fed has less room to maneuver in addressing inflation, as it still needs to consider domestic economic weaknesses. In any case, rising oil prices will compel the Federal Reserve to tackle inflation, which is why only an end to short-term tensions will truly matter.