March 16, 2026 Spot Gold Morning Analysis

Gold prices rose then fell last week, showing overall weakness. Early in the week, prices oscillated at higher levels. In the latter half of the week, due to a stronger dollar and cooling expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, gold prices declined consecutively, breaking below $5,100 on Friday with a low near $5,009, nearly piercing the $5,000 level, with the weekly close down.

The core bearish catalyst is that the probability of a March Fed rate cut has dropped to nearly zero, with June rate cuts also being delayed. Rising dollar and US Treasury yields have increased gold holding costs, causing capital outflows. Easing Middle East tensions have reduced safe-haven demand, further pressuring gold prices. This week's focus is on the Federal Reserve's policy meeting—a hawkish stance would continue to weigh on gold, while a dovish stance could trigger a rebound.

Short-term bears are dominant, with gold prices breaking below short-term moving averages. $5,000 is a key support level; if held, there's still a chance for range-bound rebound. If effectively broken, prices could probe toward $4,950. Upside resistance is in the $5,050-$5,100 range; failure to break above indicates lingering weakness.

Morning strategy: Gold prices are currently sawing around the $5,000 level, with both bulls and bears being cautious. Operationally, light long positions above $5,000 with stop loss below $4,980; targets around $5,050-$5,080, treating overall action as range-bound oscillation. Focus on the $5,000 level's hold/break and await the Fed meeting for directional confirmation.

The above is personal advice for reference only and does not constitute investment basis. Please refer to Cheng Jingsheng Shihuang's specific layout for details! !#XAU $XAU