This Week's Macro Timeline‼️

(Key Focus: Federal Reserve Meeting Week)

The core focus of the market this week is undoubtedly the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting.

Macro data + central bank actions converging together will likely become the key driver for risk assets this week.

Let me break down the timeline for you:

Tuesday (US Eastern Time)
Two key data points to watch:
• PPI (US February Producer Price Index)
This is an important forward-looking indicator for observing inflation pressure. If PPI continues to decline, it signals weakening upstream inflation pressure, which is bullish for rate cut expectations.
• EIA Crude Oil Inventory Data
Inventory changes directly impact oil price movements. Energy prices have been volatile recently; if inventories continue to decline, oil prices could rise further, potentially adding new inflationary pressure.

Thursday Early Morning (Major Event)
The most important event of the week:
Federal Reserve Rate Decision
Current market expectations via rate futures show:
Rate cut probability near 99%
This can essentially be understood as already priced in by the market.

What really needs attention, however, is not the rate itself, but rather:
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks
Key questions to watch:
• How he views recent oil price increases
• His assessment of the future inflation trajectory
• Whether he will signal more rate cuts ahead
• His stance on US economic growth

Another subtle backdrop is:
This is the second-to-last policy meeting Powell will chair during his tenure, and he's also facing some legal investigation pressure recently, so his wording and tone may be exceptionally cautious.

Same Day (Global Central Bank Day)
Two other major central bank actions will occur:
• Bank of Japan Rate Decision
• European Central Bank Rate Decision
Three major global central banks releasing signals on the same day will create interconnected impacts across forex, bonds, and risk assets.

Thursday Evening
Watch Initial Jobless Claims:
• If data is stable, it indicates the labor market remains healthy
• If it rises significantly, it could strengthen rate cut expectations
Unless there are extreme swings, market impact is typically limited.

Summary:
Next week is a classic "central bank super week":
PPI data
Oil inventory
Federal Reserve rate decision
Powell remarks
Bank of Japan and ECB meetings
Initial jobless claims

Macro variables releasing in concentrated fashion means market volatility will likely increase.

For risk assets:
Rate path + oil prices + central bank tone
will become the core short-term pricing drivers.

I'll update this macro preview once weekly as usual to help everyone prepare trades and positions in advance.

Thank you for your attention.
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