One of the best frameworks I've found for crypto cycles is from behavioral economists.

Barberis et al. (2018): when an asset runs hot, people assume it's structural. They buy. Price confirms. More people buy. Cycle feeds itself — until it runs out of new converts.
Then it flips. Same crowd, same logic, opposite direction.
BTC $100k → $74k in three months. The Goer-Upper became a Goer-Downer overnight.
But here's what the theory also says: the crash overshoots too. Because extrapolative expectations work both ways.
The question isn't whether BTC will recover. It's whether you're the one extrapolating right now.