March 18, 2026 Spot Gold Morning Analysis

On March 17, spot gold explored bottoms and rebounded with narrow-range fluctuations. The Asia session broke through the 5000 USD level, hitting lows near 4969. The European session rebounded and reclaimed 5000, with the entire day ranging between 4970-5040 in back-and-forth tug-of-war, closing slightly down with a small bearish candle on the daily chart. Overall weak oscillation with repeated battles over the 5000 level; neither bulls nor bears established a one-sided trend.

The core issue remains the cooling of Fed rate-cut expectations, with a stronger dollar pressuring gold prices. Markets are waiting for Thursday's FOMC decision. A March rate cut is basically ruled out, and June expectations have also cooled, leaving investors reluctant to aggressively chase longs. Meanwhile, geopolitical hedging demand and central bank gold purchases provide support, limiting downside space for gold—it's mostly just grinding consolidation.

Short-term oscillation skews bearish with a slowly declining pivot. Key support below at 4980-4970; a breakdown targets 4950. Resistance above at 5025-5035; a breakout would signal strengthening. The daily chart is pressured by short-term moving averages. MACD shows no enlarged bearish momentum. RSI approaching oversold suggests sharp declines are difficult to sustain—most likely continued range trading until a breakdown signal.

Intraday focus on the 4970-5035 range; avoid chasing entries. If holding above 4980, light long position with stop-loss at 4970. On rebounds to 5025-5035 facing resistance, short positions possible with stop-loss above 5045. Wait for the Fed decision to determine direction.

The above is personal advice only, for reference only, and does not constitute investment basis. Please refer to Cheng Jingsheng's Shipen layout for specifics! $XAU ‌#XAUUSD