# Federal Reserve FOMC Interest Rate Decision & Powell Press Conference Preview Analysis

## Core Event Highlights

### 1. Interest Rate Decision
Market consensus expects rates to remain unchanged; no suspense here. The focus is not on rate hikes or cuts, but rather on the dot plot's adjustment to the 2026 rate cut path. If the dot plot shows fewer rate cuts than expected, it will be viewed as hawkish, benefiting the US Dollar Index and pressuring US equities and precious metals.

### 2. Economic Projections Summary (SEP)
Key tracking metrics: Latest forecasts for core PCE, GDP, and unemployment rate. Whether core PCE can approach the 2% target will directly determine the subsequent pace and room for rate cuts.

### 3. Powell Press Conference (Critical)
Q&A session acts as a sentiment amplifier:

- **Hawkish keywords**: Sticky inflation, need more data confirmation, no rush to cut rates, second wave inflation risk → Market pressure

- **Dovish keywords**: Rate cuts possible this year, policy flexibility, data dependence, economic downside risks → Risk assets rebound

## Market Impact Forecast

- **US Equities**: Hawkish → near-term pullback, tech stocks pressured; Dovish → growth stocks and Nasdaq strengthen

- **US Dollar Index**: Hawkish strengthens, Dovish weakens

## Trading & Risk Management Recommendations

Volatility will be intense around the event. Participate with light positions, strictly control position size and stop-losses. After the decision is released, first observe the market's initial reaction, then confirm direction based on Powell's remarks. Avoid chasing rallies or panic selling, and do not enter heavy positions prematurely.