Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan: Why Bitcoin Could Ultimately Reach $1 Million and Which Factors Could Derail It

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Bitcoin performed strongly this week, with an almost 10% increase, currently up about 9.38%. This trend reflects a market rebound following recent uncertainties.

As geopolitical tensions begin to ease, some investors are reassessing Bitcoin’s role in the current environment. Conflicts often lead to increased government spending, which can exacerbate inflation.

Against this backdrop, fixed assets tend to become more attractive. Bitcoin’s limit of 21 million coins means it won’t inflate like traditional currencies due to currency devaluation, making it increasingly appealing to investors seeking long-term store of value.

Figure 1: BTC has been trending upward over the past week.

From a technical perspective, BTC is attempting to break through the sideways trading range of the past six weeks. If successful, it could open the door to near $80,000. If it fails, there remains a risk of testing the 200-week moving average and Realized Price, which have not yet been impacted in this bear market cycle.

Figure 2: Current technical outlook.

Therefore, if prices break out significantly, the upside target is around $80,000 (the bottom of the Q4 2025 range). On the downside, the 200-week moving average is at $59,000, and the Realized Price is at $54,500.

Matt Hougan: The Logic and Barriers to $1 Million

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes many Bitcoin valuation models overlook a key assumption: they treat the “store of value” market as static. History shows that when economic pressures rise, the total assets in the wealth pool tend to expand to protect holdings.

Concerns over debt levels, ongoing monetary expansion, and geopolitical instability are driving investors toward assets that preserve value. Traditionally, gold has dominated this role; however, Bitcoin is increasingly entering this discussion.

Figure 3: Global M2 Money Supply and BTC.

A major structural driver is the expansion of global liquidity. As central banks increase M2 money supply, more funds seek scarce assets that can preserve value over time. Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins fundamentally differentiates it from fiat currencies that can be expanded through stimulus policies. Hougan points out that if global liquidity continues to grow and Bitcoin gains a larger share in the store of value market, a $1 million price in the long term is reasonable.

However, this path is not without obstacles.

Figure 4: Gold vs. Bitcoin prices.

Recent market performance highlights the competition. Over the past few months, gold has outperformed Bitcoin, indicating that in periods of extreme uncertainty, investors still prefer traditional safe-haven assets.

Figure 5: Largest asset classes globally.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s market cap remains smaller than major assets. Gold’s market value still far exceeds Bitcoin’s, meaning cryptocurrencies need to question their contribution to global wealth to approach a $1 million valuation.

Higher interest rates, improved economic stability, or faster adoption could delay this shift. But Hougan emphasizes that if monetary expansion continues and Bitcoin gains broader institutional acceptance, its long-term upside potential remains significant.

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