Various countries lean toward fiscal subsidies to address conflict impacts, U.S. commercial real estate fundamentals weaken, Powell's reappointment stance becomes focal point---0318 macro dehydration

SnapshotLaborer · 2026-03-18T16:20:28+00:00

Energy prices are surging, and most Asian economies' GDP growth forecasts have been downgraded, though Malaysia and Australia, as net natural gas exporters, will benefit from this. In policy responses, countries have generally leaned toward fiscal subsidies and price caps rather than monetary tightening.Affected by weak demand and supply contractions, U.S. commercial real estate prices have underperformed inflation and lagged significantly behind residential property. The rise in capitalization rates is primarily driven by asset price declines and narrowing spreads on U.S. Treasury securities, reflecting insufficient risk compensation. Meanwhile, a refinancing peak is expected in 2026-2027, increasing debt risks.Given moderate inflation data and better-than-expected declines in nonfarm employment, the urgency for the Federal Reserve to adjust monetary policy is not high. The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged at the March policy meeting. Additionally, it's worth noting whether Powell will comment on his reappointment as governor during the press conference.

SnapshotLaborer

2026-03-18 16:20:28

Energy prices surge, leading to downward revisions in GDP growth forecasts for most Asian economies, but Malaysia and Australia, as net natural gas exporters, will benefit. In policy responses, countries generally favor fiscal subsidies and price caps over monetary tightening.
Due to weak demand and supply contraction, US commercial real estate prices underperform inflation, far behind residential. The rise in capitalization rates is mainly driven by falling asset prices and narrowing US Treasury spreads, reflecting insufficient risk compensation. Meanwhile, refinancing peaks are expected in 2026-2027, increasing debt risks.
Considering moderate inflation data and stronger-than-expected non-farm employment decline, the Federal Reserve’s urgency to adjust monetary policy is low, and rates are expected to remain unchanged at the March policy meeting. Additionally, attention is also on whether Powell will comment on remaining as a board member during the press conference.

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