I interviewed several people around me, and they all think that October this year is the lowest point of this cycle, and they plan to go all-in at that time.

Looking back at the three historical cycles, they all bottomed out with a drop of 70%–85% from the peak; this cycle's peak was $126K, and calculating by this magnitude, it would fall roughly in that range; combined with the halving cycle logic, ETF inflows, and institutional allocation, October does seem like a reasonable time node.

But when everyone around me is pointing so uniformly toward October, it actually makes me feel a bit uneasy!