US Stocks' Strong Rally Pulling Crypto Market—When Will the Bear Market Bottom? Analyzing This Bull Run's Tail End Through Cycle Patterns

The mid-year upward wave has already run its course for the most part, and the period before the end of the year has become a key point in the market. There is an old saying in the capital markets: “Trade expectations, sell facts.” The cryptocurrency market is no exception. Whether Bitcoin and altcoins can stop falling and stabilize depends on the market’s perception of future expectations. The essence of the crypto world is like an old saying—“One lives, ten thousand die.” This is not pessimism but a straightforward description of market reality.

Capital Logic Remains Unchanged: Expectation Trading Shifts to Fact Verification

Market understanding of a bull run often stays at the surface. The first challenge is identification—not everyone can accurately judge the arrival of a bull market. The second challenge is confidence—even if you understand the market logic, price movements and news fluctuations can easily trigger fear. The third challenge is persistence—there’s a gap between cognition and action, and most people fall behind here. The fourth challenge is buying—those who overcome fear and decide to enter still face the test of holding their positions. The fifth and most painful challenge: even after holding positions, when it’s time to sell, they are reluctant to do so. There are countless examples in the market—people who hold onto their coins until they lose money, and those who sell after a 10% gain are equally common.

This is why industry analysts emphasize that a true bull market doesn’t require many people to believe in it. Essentially, a bull market is a process of mutual screening between the market and retail investors. Only those with strong holding power—“diamond hands”—will ultimately succeed. Ultimately, who laughs last depends on three things: accurate market direction judgment, bottom-level chip reserves, and immense patience.

The Hidden Secrets of US Stocks and Crypto Market Capitalization: The Macro Cycle Behind Synchronized Gains and Losses

The current global liquidity injection is far beyond expectations. The Federal Reserve outwardly adopts a hawkish tone but maintains a dovish stance in practice. This “hawkish words, dovish actions” combination most easily stimulates upward momentum in risk assets. Notably, both US stocks and gold have expanded their market caps by several times during this cycle. While global asset prices generally rise, the market cap of cryptocurrencies remains unchanged—reflecting the macro liquidity distribution logic, market structure, and industry cycle constraints.

From a capital perspective, the strong performance of US stocks should have created a synergistic effect for the crypto market. However, in reality, the growth rate of crypto market cap is far below that of traditional financial assets. What does this mean? It indicates that long-suppressed demand is building up. Once the bear market ends and market sentiment shifts, these suppressed chips could trigger a new wave of explosive growth.

Repeating Historical Cycles: Insights from Past Patterns on the End-Stage Bullish Energy

The crypto market has an interesting pattern: each bull market’s starting point is based on the market cap at the end of the previous bull cycle.

In 2017, the crypto market consolidated sideways for four years, but at the end of the bull run, the market cap surged from $50 billion to $8 trillion in just three months.

Similarly, in 2021, after another four-year sideways period, the market cap jumped from $600 billion to $3 trillion during the final phase.

Following this pattern, by 2026, after a similar period of accumulation, the target market cap for the final stage of this bull cycle should be around $75 trillion, with $100 trillion as an ambitious goal. This is not wishful thinking but a logical projection based on historical cycle patterns—so long as the US stock market, as the main global risk asset, continues to support, the bear phase in crypto will eventually end, and a new explosive cycle will arrive on time.

Time is the best verifier. Investors who can patiently wait will ultimately see their perseverance rewarded.