Eight consecutive days of gains followed by a 50% retracement in two days confirms our previous analysis was correct. From a technical structure perspective, the bearish pattern on the larger timeframe has currently taken control of the market. On the daily chart, a clear evening star pattern formed near 75,000 USD, followed by consecutive red candles and pullback. The price has now broken below both the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and the midline of the rebound channel. Momentum indicators have retreated from highs, signaling the exhaustion of bullish momentum. Price is being firmly suppressed below the midline, with any bounce facing massive selling pressure. Today, 1.7 billion USD in options will expire, with the maximum pain point precisely at 70,000 USD (for BTC, the maximum pain point for ETH is at 2150)). This may cause the price to oscillate within the 69,000 to 71,000 range before expiration, but once the options constraint is lifted, downward pressure will be further released. Additionally, if you recall, 69,000--71,000 was the bulls' last defense level mentioned in many of my previous analysis reports. If it breaks below, it could likely trigger continued selling.

Overall, today's price action will likely oscillate between 68,500 and 71,000 with a downward bias. Before options expiration, price may be drawn around the 70,000 level by the "maximum pain point" effect, but once expiration occurs, downward pressure will be concentrated and released. What needs attention is that if today's close fails to reclaim the 70,000 level, the daily chart will form an effective breakdown. Early next week, there could be accelerated downside exploration toward the 65,000 to 67,000 zone.

For BTC, focus on shorting opportunities at 70,500--71,500, while for ETH, the shorting opportunity to watch is the bounce between 2150--2220.