Overnight U.S. Stocks | Three Major Indices Fall for Fourth Consecutive Week, Dow and Nasdaq Approach Correction Range, Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US) Drops Over 33%, Gold Breaks Below $4500

Crypto Insight: Major US stock indices fell sharply on Friday, marking the fourth consecutive week of declines. The Dow and Nasdaq approached correction territory. After the market closed, President Trump posted on social media, saying, “We are very close to achieving our goal,” indicating the US is considering gradually de-escalating military actions against Iran. During late trading, Trump also mentioned he could engage in dialogue with Iran but currently does not want a ceasefire. Additionally, reports suggest the US has prepared detailed plans to deploy ground troops in Iran.

[US Stocks] At the close, the Dow dropped 443.96 points, or 0.96%, to 45,577.47; the Nasdaq fell 443.08 points, or 2.01%, to 21,647.61; the S&P 500 declined 100.01 points, or 1.51%, to 6,506.48. Microchip Technology (SMCI.US) fell over 33%, Nvidia (NVDA.US) down 3.2%, Micron Technology (MU.US) down 4.8%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped 2.8%, Xpeng Motors (XPEV.US) fell 8.2%.

[European Stocks] Germany’s DAX30 index declined 484.21 points, or 2.12%, to 22,368.27; UK FTSE 100 down 157.51 points, or 1.57%, to 9,905.99; France CAC40 down 142.25 points, or 1.82%, to 7,665.62; Europe STOXX 50 fell 112.93 points, or 2.01%, to 5,500.90; Spain’s IBEX 35 declined 217.14 points, or 1.28%, to 16,688.76; Italy’s FTSE MIB dropped 847.88 points, or 1.94%, to 42,853.50.

[Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin rose 0.66% to $70,659.35; Ethereum increased 0.59% to $2,153.10.

[Crude Oil] International oil prices rose on the 20th. At the close, NYMEX April light crude futures gained $2.18, ending at $98.32 per barrel, up 2.27%; London Brent crude futures for May delivery rose $3.54 to $112.19 per barrel, up 3.26%. UBS raised its oil price forecasts for 2026-2027, reflecting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing Middle East conflicts. The bank increased its 2026 forecast by $14 to $86 per barrel and 2027 by $10 to $80 per barrel. Analysts said, “This forecast assumes the conflict will last another 2-3 weeks until early April, with oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remaining severely reduced. We assume major oil fields and terminals will not be damaged, and flow will gradually recover from April but not return to normal.”

[US Dollar Index] The dollar index, measuring the dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.42% to close at 99.641. At the New York close, 1 euro exchanged for 1.1559 USD (down from 1.1560), 1 GBP for 1.3337 USD (down from 1.3404). The USD/JPY rate was 159.22, up from 157.83; USD/CHF was 0.7885, down from 0.7905; USD/CAD was 1.3707, down from 1.3727; USD/SEK was 9.3594, up from 9.3180.

[Metals] Spot gold plunged 3.43% to $4,498.31 per ounce, down about 9.5% this week; spot silver fell 6.89% to $67.801 per ounce, down over 14% this week. Independent precious metals trader Tai Wong said, “As market concerns rose heading into the weekend, gold and silver prices were dragged lower. After a volatile week driven by rate hike fears, metals are very choppy. Prices should consolidate soon, but the process will be bumpy.” Major global brokerages believe the European Central Bank and Bank of England are increasingly likely to raise interest rates, possibly as early as April. The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday and forecast higher inflation, with Chair Powell stating that future policy paths face high uncertainty due to the war.

[Macro News]

Trump: No Ceasefire Now, Hormuz Strait Will Open Automatically. Trump recently said he could engage in talks with Iran but does not want a ceasefire at this time. He expressed confidence that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen “automatically” at some point, despite allies’ reluctance to assist. Trump said Friday at the White House, “You know, when you’re completely destroying the other side, you don’t stop fire. NATO could help us, but so far they haven’t had the courage. Others can help, but we’re not counting on them.” Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Trump again stated, “We don’t need it. Europe needs it, South Korea, Japan, and many other countries need it, so they have to get involved.” He also said that eventually, the Strait will open on its own. On domestic polls, Trump joked, “The media released a poll today showing my support at 100%.”

US Defense Department Ready for Ground Troops in Iran. Multiple sources briefed on the matter said US Defense officials have prepared detailed plans to deploy ground troops in Iran. The sources said, as Trump considers options led by the US and Israel in the Iran conflict, senior military commanders have submitted specific requests to prepare for such actions. It’s unclear under what circumstances Trump would authorize ground troop deployment. On Thursday, when asked about ground forces in the Oval Office, he told reporters, “No, I won’t deploy troops anywhere,” then added, “If I do, I definitely won’t tell you.” Two sources said the military held meetings to prepare for handling the possible detention of Iranian soldiers and paramilitary personnel if Trump decides to send troops, including where these Iranians would be taken.

Fed Governor Waller: ‘Urgent’ Rate Cut Reversal Due to Oil Price Surge. Fed Governor Waller said he initially planned to support a rate cut at this week’s meeting, given the unexpected February unemployment figures. But with escalating oil supply tensions and persistent inflation threats, he realized more cautious measures were needed before the impact of the Iran war became clear. Waller noted that when the latest employment report showed a 92,000-job decrease last month, he thought, “It’s over, I disagree with the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady.” Since then, the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked, suggesting the conflict will last longer and keep oil prices high, raising inflation concerns. The duration will depend on how much and how long energy prices stay elevated.

Fed Governor Bullard: Still Expecting Three Rate Cuts This Year. Bullard said in an interview that it’s too early to assess the impact of the Iran war, but he expects the economy to grow strongly this year thanks to government supply-side spending. He said he hasn’t heard of layoffs but remains concerned about the labor market. He still expects three rate cuts this year. Regarding banking regulation, Bullard wants to ensure reforms consider banks’ needs and will adjust rules based on bank characteristics. He’s closely watching private credit and leverage in AI sectors, ensuring regulators stay alert to risks. Bullard looks forward to working with Kevin Woor, and if his appointment is confirmed, it will significantly influence the Fed. Regarding Chair Powell, Bullard said Powell has clarified his term plans and will explain his position himself.

CFTC Releases FAQ on Crypto Assets and Blockchain, Strengthening Regulatory Consistency. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a FAQ on crypto assets and blockchain-related activities, clarifying compliance guidelines for registrants and trading entities. The content covers tokenized collateral and digital assets as margin, supplementing previous guidance letters (tokenized custody and no-action on digital asset margin), providing clearer operational frameworks. CFTC Chair Mike Selig said that with “Project Crypto” becoming a joint initiative with the SEC, aligning crypto regulation is an important step toward clearer, unified rules.

[Stock News]

Strategy (MSTR.US) CEO: If Morgan Stanley Allocates 2% of Assets to Bitcoin, Potential $160 Billion Buy. Strategy CEO Phong Le posted on X that Morgan Stanley’s wealth management manages about $8 trillion. If they recommend a 0–4% allocation to Bitcoin, a 2% allocation would mean about $160 billion in potential buying demand—three times the current size of the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT). He called this potential demand “Monster Bitcoin,” implying the market could see significant buying pressure impacting prices and liquidity.