Weekend Chat Session

The profit chart is open, so I’ll share it during tough market times. When the market turns around and everyone starts sharing, I won’t post anymore. [Taogu Ba]

The previous post received too many replies, so I’m starting a new thread for discussion.
Since the end of January, I haven’t used a traffic card for my posts, so only loyal followers can see them. Now, after two months, the followers have slightly increased and decreased, maintaining around 4,700. It’s like a sideways consolidation without volume during a market lull. In the stock trading journey, there are many peers, but truly like-minded, synchronized traders need time to verify each other.

Yesterday, I saw a letter of surrender written by the funds.

Let’s review the last technical post (Part 2): Anti-quantitative strategy:
(1) Strategy One: Abandon short-term trading, embrace medium to long-term investing

Logic: Quantitative trading exists only in the trading world; it cannot control the growth of high-quality companies in the real world. Companies are organizations formed by people fulfilling their roles. The essence of a high-quality company is the collective strength of this organization. In the real world, a company’s growth is fundamentally based on human consensus and recognition of this collective strength. Therefore, the future value increase brought by the growth of high-quality companies is human-centric and future-oriented, which quant strategies cannot predict or learn at present.

This future attribute, when projected into trading, is called medium to long-term investing, not short-term trading. For example, a stock is currently 10 yuan, and after three years, it’s 20 yuan. During these three years, quant strategies can harvest daily profits from human traders, but their current strategy isn’t “recognize this stock as high-quality and aim for a threefold increase in three years while trading short-term to harvest profits from humans.”

Quantitative trading mainly profits from market liquidity and emotional volatility. If you don’t watch the market or trade, the “jumps” on intraday charts won’t cause any real damage. As long as the company’s performance continues to grow, all short-term fluctuations will eventually be smoothed out. Time is a friend to humans but an enemy to quant strategies (high-frequency strategies).

Humans should choose fundamentally strong stocks with long-term growth logic, buy and hold for the long term, and ignore intraday volatility.

Return to the most primitive and pure dimension of investment and trading.

Abandon the short-term trading techniques refined over years, let go of the obsession that a little more effort will lead to enlightenment, and return to the initial you who only looks for high-quality companies when first entering the stock market.

There is also a force that can defeat quant strategies: the power of market leaders, i.e., market collective strength. When market sentiment has been suppressed for a long time, leading stocks will emerge, rallying various forces in the market to form a collective.

This is easy to understand. From late November to early January, when the market collective strength was still present, aerospace was the main theme, and most people could make money. Quant strategies couldn’t do much harm and even helped. Starting January 14th, the main theme disappeared, and until today, most people are losing money.

Why leave the main theme? Because everyone felt the pressure from JG. The ban on hype, crackdown on funds, and criticism of short-term trading. Later, funds left the market, and everyone gradually left the main theme for various reasons and made different choices. These rotations, under quant control, repeatedly cut everyone’s positions.

I’ve always said that A-shares market sentiment is a cultural product, not subject to will. Our historical cultural pattern is that separation and reunion are cyclical.
Compare this to the most familiar difficult moment—resistance against Japan. When our nation faced invaders, the phrase “absolutely no resistance” shattered all collective resistance. For survival or livelihood, everyone made different choices: the Chinese army, local militias, guerrilla groups, security teams, police, Han J, Wang puppet J, imperialist J, Manchu puppet J, Mongolian puppet J, bandits, etc.
In times of hardship, having too many choices means divisions, and without unity, no collective effort can form. This weakness stems from centuries of Confucian culture.
Only after GG’s cooperation, with the phrase “everyone, regardless of age, has a duty to defend,” did resistance become possible. This resilience and patience, formed over millennia, only erupt when pushed too far.
Contrast this with today: one D-party government, a few D-party members participating in politics and supporting it firmly. This form aligns with our culture—forming a leader-centric group, everyone can prosper. Our culture doesn’t allow too many choices; if given, it leads to internal chaos.

Returning to the stock market, it’s the same: culture determines that too many choices are not allowed. When the market is suppressed for a long time, a leader will emerge, guiding everyone to choose only the leader and follow the main theme led by that leader. Only then can everyone prosper, and resistance succeed. Otherwise, we’ll always be cut by quant strategies.

Talking about leaders, in a private chat, it seems currently to be Guosheng, Huadian, and Yunnan Energy, which look more like some patterns. When the WangWang team doesn’t come to rescue the market, sentiment is suppressed to the extreme, making group formation more likely. But each has its drawbacks: one is considered a “big stock,” so some won’t participate, making collective strength harder; another needs a slight downward adjustment to test strength through divergence; another is still under regulatory scrutiny. They share common themes: one is photovoltaic + energy storage, another is coal power transitioning to green energy, and another is power + energy storage.

Finally, a mental reassurance: the market is very poor right now, so some encouragement is needed.
If your principal is 100,000 yuan, earning just 1% daily by year-end, it would be over 700,000 yuan; earning 2% daily, over 5 million yuan.
It’s not about daily “leader strategies.” Teacher Da Zeng has been testing this route daily; it’s not feasible. You might not do better than him.
What matters is steady daily profits, avoiding losses to break compound growth, and not trading or trading less when the market is bad, trading more when it’s good.

That’s all for this weekend.

Recently, the poor market has kept friends from doing data analysis. Brother Mao doesn’t want to see friends lose money or be unhappy, and I haven’t been posting with traffic lately. GS and FES can make money but I don’t want to take their profits, as they aren’t my stocks. Your gains and losses are on you. I just occasionally mentioned group cooperation based on market needs. If I take profits, it’s just luck that consumes my luck. Some friends are losing money and still doing data analysis; I appreciate that. It’s noted in my mind, and I’ll give feedback when the market turns around.