Iran, Oil and Gas. This Time Nobody Gets Off Easy

Let me share some thoughts on Middle East developments before the weekend.

When Trump first took action, he thought he could accomplish 5 years of work in 4 days, just like he did with Maduro before. Here's what actually happened:

— The coup never materialized
— Taking out a few leaders didn't trigger any defections, and failed to install a compliant regime
— The operation dragged on longer, burning through $11,000 per second, now requiring Congress to approve another $200 billion, and ground operations are being prepared
— Iran struck back, and U.S. allies in the Middle East took serious hits

Bottom line: the plan for a quick decisive victory followed by getting everyone to "make peace" has completely fallen apart. More critically, the conflict has entered a new phase: after Israel bombed Iran's energy facilities, Iran went after a wide range of targets in the region, including Qatar's 17% of LNG production capacity and UAE energy infrastructure. Repair timeframes are 3–5 years, and European gas prices jumped over 30%+ immediately.

Why does this matter? Everyone hears "Strait of Hormuz being squeezed" and thinks the sky is falling, but that's really just a short-term play. Iran is now only allowing tankers unrelated to the U.S., Israel, and their allies through, while juggling various diplomatic maneuvers with other nations. Oil prices will spike and feed into inflation, but from a timeline perspective, it's just temporary.

Infrastructure destruction is a completely different story—that's long-term impact. Shipping fleets on that side can be evacuated in days, but rebuilding LNG transport corridors and reconstructing oil field facilities? That's measured in years minimum.

My take is that markets are already pricing in the expectation: energy prices will remain elevated for the coming months, or frankly just stay stuck at high levels. This is no joke.

Wishing you all profitable gains!