#创作者冲榜 Gold "spot" breaks below $4500, silver breaks below $68—short-term correction or end of trend?

Gold fell, and it really fell.
On March 21, spot gold broke below $4500 intraday, COMEX gold futures closed at $4574, and silver futures closed at $69.6. And that wasn't even the worst of it—gold fell for eight consecutive trading days, marking the largest single-week decline in 15 years, dropping nearly 10% in one week. Silver was even worse, falling over 14% in a week. Keep in mind that on March 2, gold was hovering around $5400. In just over half a month, it fell almost $1000. The Middle East turned into a mess, yet gold deflated like a punctured balloon, rolling downward all the way.

What's going on? Shouldn't war drive prices up? Can you believe what Trump says? Now it might not even be about Cyprus anymore—it's directly about Tehran. This isn't aimed at regime change.

The reversed logic
This needs to be examined from the start. That wave of gold's explosive surge from 2025 to early 2026, from over $3000 to $5400, relied on three forces: central banks worldwide buying gold frantically, countries accelerating de-dollarization, and geopolitical risks emerging constantly. All three pointed to the same conclusion: the dollar's credibility was shaking, and gold was the ultimate currency. But after the U.S.-Iran conflict erupted at the end of February, the script changed. The most direct impact from the conflict was on oil prices. With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Brent crude jumped from $70 to over $100, touching $109 at one point intraday.

Oil skyrocketing normally means inflation expectations heat up, and capital should rush into gold. But not this time. About 80% of global oil trade is settled in dollars, and Middle Eastern wealthy nations' currencies are still pegged to the dollar. When oil prices rise, dollar demand rises too. This created a dilemma: rising oil prices should be bullish for gold, but at the same time, rising oil prices pushed up the dollar, which is bearish for gold. The latter force temporarily overwhelmed the former. So gold got roasted on the fire.

The Fed is the most devastating blow
Bigger trouble came from Powell. On March 18, after the Fed meeting, they announced rates unchanged, maintained at 3.5%-3.75%. That's not the key point—the key is the dot plot changed. The expected number of rate cuts in 2026 dropped from the previous forecast of three to just one, and some even started discussing whether to raise rates. Powell said something in the press conference that made the market feel cold: "If inflation shows no substantial progress, rate cuts won't be considered." He also said the committee has begun discussing "whether rate hikes might be possible next," though it's not yet the baseline scenario for most, but hearing this from Powell's mouth is itself a signal. This directly changed the market's underlying logic.

At the start of the year, everyone was expecting the Fed to cut 150 basis points this year. Now? CME data shows the market's probability of rate cuts this year is already below 10%. There's also news that rate hike expectations briefly spiked to 60.4%—when this number came out, the market exploded directly—sell gold first, buy dollars. Thus gold futures plummeted instantly, and the dollar index shot up instantly. The two traced out a classic X-shaped crossover.

This is gold's most awkward position right now: gold doesn't earn interest, dollars do. When hedge funds are trading a dollar liquidity crisis, when real interest rates are elevated, even surging wildly, capital naturally flows toward dollar assets. And the dollar index has already held firm above 100, making the opportunity cost of holding gold terrifyingly high.

Another overlooked reason: gold surged too much and has its own problems. As of the end of February, gold's premium relative to the 5-year average hit the highest level since 1980, with volatility at 2.4 times that of the S&P 500. In other words, gold has shifted from a store of value to a speculation target. With more speculative positions, volatility naturally increases. When the market experiences violent swings, investors need to raise cash to handle margin calls and portfolio rebalancing, and gold, being one of the most liquid assets, often becomes the first to be dumped.

JPMorgan data shows that when the panic index (VIX) exceeds 30 and keeps rising, gold's weekly upside probability is only 45%, with average returns negative. It's not that gold itself has problems, but investors need to sell gold to cover holes in other positions.

There's another indicator worth watching: the gold-to-oil ratio. This ratio normally trades in the 16-20x range, normal zone 10-25x. But currently the gold-to-oil ratio far exceeds 30x, indicating the market is in an extremely abnormal state—either gold is too expensive, or oil is too cheap, or both. Now gold is falling, which is partly a correction of this ratio. For the medium to long term? Probably not a bad thing.

Short-term discomfort, but the fundamental logic supporting gold's rise is intact—not one of them broke.

First, the Middle East situation won't die down quickly. Iran's weapons have been decentralized and underground. How many resources would the U.S. need to thoroughly defeat it? That's something to calculate. And don't underestimate a people determined not to be conquered, or underestimate an Islamic faith system that views "death" differently—these metaphysical things are hard to quantify with military models.

Second, de-dollarization continues. Since 2014, countries have quietly been net-selling U.S. Treasuries while hoarding physical gold frantically. The central banks' central bank—the Bank for International Settlements—has already listed gold as a Tier 1 reserve asset. Global official gold reserves have for the first time since 1996 exceeded U.S. Treasury holdings. Global central banks have been net buyers of gold for 16 consecutive years, with 2025 net gold purchases reaching 863 tons, accounting for 25% of global mining output.

Third, the petrodollar is showing cracks. China is building a system of "yuan + oil + gold"—establishing vaults in Saudi Arabia. Just use offshore yuan to settle oil, and you can freely exchange it for gold. This is a clear signal: overthrowing the old "petrodollar" system is serious business.

Fourth, the U.S. itself is getting ideas about gold. A Société Générale report revealed key information: currently, U.S. gold reserves are valued on the books at the 1973 price of $42.22 per ounce. If revalued at market price, it could generate about $2.1 trillion in accounting gains, representing 5-6% of total U.S. debt. This move won't solve fundamental problems, but it can buy the U.S. some time.

What's next?
Short-term, gold might head toward $4400—that was the key support level when prices crashed in January. If it breaks that, the next technical support is $4000.

But the medium-to-long-term fundamentals haven't changed. JPMorgan projects gold could reach $6300 in Q4 2026, and Deutsche Bank maintains a long-term target of $6000.

The key question now is: will the U.S. get dragged into a prolonged war? If it really becomes a long-term conflict, new debt must be issued, debt ratios soar, deficits expand, inflation becomes ridiculous—then the market will truly realize that gold is the last straw that breaks the dollar's back.

So the strategy is simple: follow the short-term panic if you want, but don't lose your core position. When it truly drops to where others fear, that's when you should act. Gold's fundamentals aren't broken—if they were, the dollar would have already surged. Where is the dollar now? Just over 100, still far from its peak power of 115.