Market Analysis

Expectations for Monday

It's Sunday evening now, which is Sunday morning in the US. The US stock market will open tomorrow. I believe the market movement will largely depend on Monday's news and how US stocks perform after the opening.

News Developments

Currently, the news remains within "Trump's 48-hour window"—the ultimatum Trump gave to Iran. This deadline should expire tomorrow evening in the Asia timezone, around market opening time, when we'll know whether Iran will agree to a ceasefire. If this news materializes, I believe it would be supportive for the market.

If Iran doesn't announce a ceasefire, the ball returns to Trump. He still has two options: First, despite Iran not backing down, he could unilaterally declare victory and announce no further military action. In this case, the market would continue to process expectations according to "TACO."

Second, Trump could actually bomb Iran's nuclear facilities—the worst-case scenario. I expect this would cause the market to decline. However, if it doesn't immediately break below 63000, the situation wouldn't be too dire.

US Stock Market

Did we bottom on Friday?

Friday touched the lower boundary of the descending channel and rebounded in the final hour. After market close (5:22 pm), Trump mentioned "possibly unwinding the Iran war," seemingly indicating insider buying.

However, on Saturday, Trump again mentioned potential bombing, which wasn't reflected in stocks (due to market closure) but received feedback in the crypto space.

Therefore, only by combining the final news developments can we determine whether US stocks have truly bottomed.

If a ceasefire emerges on Monday, combined with Friday evening's rebound confirming insider buying, the market should confirm a bottom and rebound. Both US stocks and crypto should rebound in tandem. 65000 would be confirmed as support.

However, if Monday sees escalating conflict intensity, it would be extremely unfavorable. Friday's closing buy-in would be interpreted as a failed counter-attack by bulls.

Summary

Overall, this is currently a news-driven market, with technical analysis playing a diminished role. We believe the market will sweep through 69000 before rebounding. This sweep has already occurred, and the 4H level shows bullish divergence, but whether we rebound depends on news-driven catalysts.

Some analysts believe there could be further decline to 64000 before rebounding to the 80000 range. I don't currently think this will materialize.

Therefore, for me, the probability of a rebound from 67300 (from a technical perspective) remains higher, but I respect all subsequent reactions driven by the news.

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