Bitcoin Analysis

$BTC once again failed to close the weekly candle above the $72K range high, which is a concern. That was one of the main reasons I decided to close my long position, along with the second factor being the ongoing war between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

I’ve made it clear that a range is forming, and I expect Bitcoin to continue trading sideways between $54K and $72K. This phase is not bullish. It is a preparation phase for what comes next. My expectation remains the same: after this consolidation, Bitcoin is likely to break down from the range and move toward $44K–$50K or even lower in the coming months.

To understand this better, look back at 2024. Bitcoin spent nearly a full year consolidating between $58K and $74K. At that time, I explained that this range would act as a future reference zone in the next bear market. Now in 2026, price has returned to that same structure. In a bear market, previous consolidation zones act as structure, not support, and structure eventually breaks.

Why buy in a bear market?

Because markets do not move in straight lines. Even in downtrends, there are strong counter-trend rallies. For example, in 2022, Bitcoin dropped from $68K to $33K, then rallied to $48.5K before continuing down to $16K. These moves exist to build liquidity before the next leg down. That’s why I still expect the final bottom below $50K.

Macro Pressure

The current downside is also being driven by geopolitical risk. Tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran have escalated, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for nearly 20% of global oil supply.

With Iran restricting access and the U.S. escalating military actions, Crude Oil has surged above $110, increasing inflation fears. This is pushing markets into a risk-off environment, where investors move away from risk assets like Bitcoin, leading to panic selling, liquidity grabs, and reduced capital inflow into crypto.

Strategy Update

My strategy remains unchanged.
I previously warned near $124K that the market was overheated. I opened a short around $118K and added more near $97K, bringing my average entry to $104K. I have already closed 50% of that short at $72K and still hold the remaining position.
My long from $68K has now been closed at breakeven. I will look to re-enter long positions below $60K if the market dips further.

If Bitcoin rallies into the $80K–$85K resistance zone, I plan to open additional short positions, as that area is likely to act as a distribution zone depending on how the market structure develops.
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