📊 ETH Technical Analysis (Based on 4-Hour Candlesticks)

1. Current Trend: Price has pulled back from the high of 2,385.66 USDT and is currently in a short-term downtrend. Price has broken below the MA5, MA10, and MA30 moving averages, with moving averages in bearish alignment, indicating short-term bearish momentum dominance.
2. Key Support/Resistance Levels:
- Support Levels: Recent low of 2,026 USDT (24h low), previous low of 1,910.20 USDT
- Resistance Levels: Above current price at 2,100 USDT (near MA10), 2,147 USDT (near MA30), previous high of 2,385.66 USDT
3. Volume Signal: Current trading volume (16,600 ETH) is below the 5-day and 10-day average volume. Volume has not significantly expanded during the decline, suggesting selling pressure has weakened, but buying has not yet entered the market, indicating cautious market sentiment.

📰 Fundamental Analysis (Combined with Recent Industry Dynamics)

1. Macro Environment: Federal Reserve rate hike expectations remain, US dollar index strength is applying pressure on risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).
2. Industry Landscape:
- Post-ETH merge staking continues to grow; long-term lock-ups provide some support to circulating supply, but short-term market sentiment is heavily influenced by Bitcoin correlation.
- Layer2 ecosystem development is favorable for ETH's long-term value, but difficult to directly reflect in price in the short term.
3. Market Sentiment: The overall crypto market is in a consolidating downtrend phase, with Fear and Greed Index showing caution, and strong risk-averse sentiment in capital flows.

🎯 Trading Strategy

Plan One: Bearish Approach (Following Short-Term Trend)

- Direction: Short
- Entry Point: 2,060–2,080 USDT (when price rebounds and faces resistance near MA10)
- Stop Loss: 2,150 USDT (breakthrough of MA30, trend reversal signal)
- Take Profit Targets:
- First Target: 2,026 USDT (24h low, test support)
- Second Target: 1,950 USDT (after breaking support, look toward previous low vicinity)

💡 Risk Warning

1. Cryptocurrency prices fluctuate dramatically; sudden developments in fundamentals (such as regulatory policy, large transfers, or Federal Reserve policy changes) may instantly break technical patterns.
2. Leveraged trading carries extreme risk; even strategies with 95% accuracy rates can suffer significant losses from a single black swan event.