International spot gold annual gains wiped out; subsequent trends depend on extent of damage to Iran's energy infrastructure

International spot gold extended last week's decline at the beginning of this week, with intraday losses exceeding 4%. Today's decline has completely erased the year-to-date gains. Precious metals analyst Bernard Dahdah believes the current trend hinges on the direction of Middle East conflict and whether the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened. If Iran's energy facilities suffer further damage and the conflict becomes protracted, given the stickiness of energy prices, it could even force the Federal Reserve to shift toward rate hikes. Under this extreme scenario, gold prices could plunge to the $4,000 low.

In contrast to market pessimism, Saxo Bank analysts maintain cautious optimism on gold's medium-term outlook. The bank points out that this round of shocks exhibits clear stagflationary characteristics: high inflation coupled with sluggish economic growth, putting global central banks in a dilemma. In such an environment, gold's core position as a hedge against "currency depreciation" and U.S. dollar credit risk remains solid, supported by the long-term "de-dollarization" process and the trend of central bank reserve diversification. #Gate13周年全球庆典 #黄金创43年来最大单周跌幅 #特朗普向伊朗发出48小时最后通牒 #中东局势引发全球市场暴跌