The era of "9 yuan" oil prices has not yet fully arrived.

As of now, the domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted six times in 2026, mostly upward. In March, there have been two rounds of price adjustments. On March 9, gasoline and diesel prices increased by 695 yuan/ton and 670 yuan/ton respectively. Most recently, on March 23, domestic gasoline and diesel prices were raised by 1,160 yuan and 1,115 yuan per ton, respectively, below previous expectations.

This is because the government intervened to regulate oil prices, resulting in an average increase of about 0.85 yuan per liter for nationwide gasoline and diesel.

Therefore, the predicted full transition of 92-octane gasoline into the “9-yuan” era has not yet occurred.

For consumers, changes in fuel prices directly translate into rapidly rising refueling costs. From a broader perspective, their impact is gradually transmitted along the energy, logistics, manufacturing, and end-consumption chains.

Impact of Middle East Tensions

From the source, the recent sharp rise in oil prices is driven by geopolitical developments in the Middle East, especially the increased security risks in key shipping routes.

For a long time, the Strait of Hormuz has been regarded as a critical passage for global oil transportation, with about 30% of the world’s crude oil passing through it. Any disturbance in this region not only limits actual transportation capacity but also significantly amplifies market expectations of supply disruptions, pushing oil prices to include risk premiums.

Under current circumstances, the shipping system has already experienced noticeable changes. On one hand, some oil tankers are forced to reroute, lengthening transportation cycles; on the other hand, shipping insurance costs have risen sharply, compounded by safety risks, leading to a rapid increase in overall transportation costs.

Data shows that international oil prices surged from $82 to $112 per barrel within 20 days, an increase of over 36%. China’s heavy reliance on imported crude means that significant fluctuations in international oil prices will inevitably be transmitted to the domestic market through the current refined oil pricing mechanism.

This impact is not limited to energy but extends along the industrial chain to the automotive industry. For example, in logistics. Whether it’s refined oil transportation or vehicle exports, both heavily depend on maritime shipping. When key routes are blocked, transportation efficiency declines, shipping schedules become uncertain, and the delivery pace of vehicles is directly affected.

Multiple sources report that some international shipping companies have suspended passage through high-risk waters, causing many ships to be stranded, leading to a phase of disruption in the global logistics system. For automakers relying on exports, this means increased inventory pressure and passive adjustments to production schedules.

Next is the raw materials sector. The Middle East is not only a major crude oil producer but also an important source of fossil raw materials. Tightening supplies of naphtha will transmit to basic chemicals like ethylene, affecting prices of plastics, synthetic rubber, and other materials. These materials are widely used in automobile manufacturing—from tires and interiors to seals and wiring harnesses. Cost changes at this level are amplified layer by layer, ultimately impacting vehicle manufacturing costs and squeezing corporate profit margins.

For example, Japanese automakers, affected by route risks, have proactively reduced production or scaled back certain market operations. This indicates that geopolitical conflicts have shifted from external disturbances to endogenous variables influencing the automotive industry.

For the Chinese market, similar effects are present. Rising international oil prices not only directly push up domestic refined oil prices but also indirectly influence automotive production and circulation through transportation and raw material costs. In this context, oil price increases are no longer just a terminal consumption issue but a cost transmission chain across the entire industry.

However, from another perspective, this change also exerts a certain “push” effect on the industry. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association, believes that rising oil prices increase operating costs and also influence market structure, helping to reduce low-level repetitive competition and encouraging companies to shift from price competition to product and technological competition.

In other words, this round of oil price increases has dual attributes: it creates cost pressures along the supply chain and also promotes industry restructuring. This dual effect makes its impact more complex and more sustained.

Meanwhile, the uncertainty in Middle East geopolitics suggests that these effects are unlikely to subside in the short term. Unlike previous oil price cycles dominated by supply and demand fluctuations, such geopolitical factors tend to last longer and have more profound impacts on market expectations.

Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), recently stated, “This crisis is more severe than the two oil crises of the 1970s combined.”

Morgan Stanley also issued a warning in its latest research report: if international oil prices remain stable above $120 per barrel, it could pose a substantial downward risk to economic growth in Asia. Using a quantitative model, the bank estimates that every $10 increase in oil prices per barrel could directly drag down overall GDP growth in Asia by about 20 to 30 basis points.

However, on March 23, international oil prices experienced a sharp plunge. U.S. President Trump posted on social media that he had “very good and productive” talks with Iran. As a result, international crude oil and natural gas prices declined. WTI and Brent futures prices once dropped by about 13% intraday.

The “9-Yuan Era” Has Not Arrived Yet

In response to two consecutive price hikes in March, the most immediate market reaction was long queues at gas stations. This is a natural response from consumers facing rising living costs.

China’s refined oil prices are linked to international oil prices through a pricing mechanism. Specifically, it operates on a ten-working-day cycle. This mechanism uses the international crude oil price as a benchmark, calculating the weighted average change over ten working days to determine domestic price adjustments.

If the price change exceeds 50 yuan per ton, an adjustment is triggered; if less, it is carried over to the next cycle. The two adjustments in March were triggered amid a rapid rise in international oil prices. During the adjustment period, crude oil prices remained in an upward trend, keeping the reference change rate positive and expanding it, resulting in a significant overall increase.

Looking back at the oil price trends since the pandemic, they show clear phases. In early 2020, due to global demand contraction, international oil prices plunged, and domestic prices remained in the “5-yuan era” for a long time.

As the global economy recovered, energy demand rebounded, and OPEC+ continued its production cuts, oil prices began to rise again. In 2022, geopolitical conflicts pushed international prices above $120 per barrel, and domestic prices approached high levels, with 92-octane gasoline entering the “9-yuan era.”

Since then, prices have fluctuated but generally remained at relatively high levels. In 2026, influenced by Middle East conflicts, oil prices surged again, especially in March.

This change has a direct and perceptible impact on end consumers. Before and after price adjustments, queues at gas stations reappeared, with many drivers filling up in advance of price hikes. This behavior reflects both a short-term response to rising prices and an uncertain outlook on future oil prices.

High fuel prices have a clear impact on people’s livelihoods. Some netizens have calculated that for ordinary household cars, driving 1,500 km per month means an extra 100 to 200 yuan in fuel costs. For ride-hailing and freight vehicles, monthly fuel expenses can increase by as much as 5,000 yuan.

So when will oil prices fall again? Cui Dongshu believes that in the short term, it’s unlikely that prices will return to previous lows.

This is mainly due to several factors: the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is unlikely to ease in the short term; risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain; OPEC+ continues its production cuts, keeping global crude supply tight; and international crude inventories are relatively low, meaning any supply-side disturbance could trigger price volatility. This indicates that high oil prices are unlikely to be a short-term phenomenon, and both consumers and businesses should prepare accordingly.

To stabilize oil prices and ensure steady economic and social development, the government has taken action. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) stated that, based on the current price mechanism, temporary measures are being implemented to regulate domestic refined oil prices.

Originally, calculations based on the current mechanism suggested that this time, domestic gasoline and diesel prices should increase by 2,205 yuan and 2,120 yuan per ton, respectively, bringing 92-octane gasoline into the “9-yuan era.” However, to cushion the impact of sharp international price fluctuations and reduce effects on daily travel, the increases were reduced by 1,045 yuan and 1,005 yuan, respectively, keeping the nationwide 92-octane gasoline price around 8 yuan per liter.

Opportunities for New Energy Vehicles?

Amidst rising oil prices, many people are complaining about the high costs and are starting to consider whether to switch to new energy vehicles. Clearly, structural changes in the automotive market are beginning to emerge. Some car owners report that previously, gas stations offered discounts for 95 and 98 octane fuels at the same price, but now most of these offers have been canceled.

From early this year, the new energy vehicle (NEV) market faced some adjustment pressures. With the reduction of purchase tax subsidies by half in 2026, there was an early consumption surge, leading to a temporary demand dip at the start of 2026. Data from the China Passenger Car Association shows that in February, retail sales of new energy passenger cars declined by 32% year-on-year to 464,000 units, with penetration rate dropping to about 45%.

Meanwhile, the traditional fuel vehicle market seized the opportunity by increasing terminal discounts, achieving some sales recovery. In February, retail sales of conventional fuel passenger cars reached 570,000 units, a 19% decline, but less than that of new energy vehicles. The initial “strong fuel, weak electric” trend led many to believe that 2026 would be a year of slowdown for NEV growth and a defensive year for fuel vehicles.

However, this outlook is changing with rising oil prices. Compared to purchase costs, operating costs have a more lasting influence on consumers. When oil prices stay high, the cost of using fuel vehicles rises significantly, increasingly affecting purchase decisions.

Market feedback indicates that more consumers are now paying attention to “total operating costs” rather than just purchase price. This shift has re-emphasized the economic advantages of NEVs.

Cui Dongshu points out that rising oil prices will stimulate NEV consumption. When fuel costs remain high, the cost advantage of NEVs becomes more apparent, influencing consumer choices. Especially in the 100,000 to 150,000 yuan price range for family cars, consumers are highly sensitive to operating costs, and rising fuel prices could be a key factor driving them toward NEVs.

Market data also reflect this trend. The China Passenger Car Association estimates that in March, retail sales of new energy passenger cars will reach about 900,000 units, with penetration exceeding 52.9%. This indicates that after the early-year adjustment, the NEV market is regaining momentum. Meanwhile, terminal discounts for fuel vehicles have dropped to around 24%, but rising fuel costs are hampering the recovery.

However, the NEV market still faces challenges. First, the impact of policy rollbacks has yet to be fully absorbed; second, issues like charging infrastructure and regional disparities still limit demand release.

From the enterprise perspective, NEV manufacturers also face profitability pressures and intensified competition. Although sales structure may improve, price competition persists, and companies need to balance cost control and product upgrades. Therefore, rising oil prices mainly improve demand-side conditions rather than directly addressing supply-side issues.

In the longer term, replacing fuel vehicles with NEVs is fundamentally driven by technological progress and industrial upgrading. High oil prices simply reinforce the economic logic of this process. That is, even without rising oil prices, NEV penetration would still increase, but the pace might be more gradual. Currently, this process is being significantly amplified.

Overall, the automotive market in 2026 is undergoing a structural rebalancing. Early in the year, fuel vehicles maintained support through price advantages, while NEVs faced policy pressures. As oil prices rose in March, operating costs became a key variable, re-emphasizing NEV advantages.

Thus, this round of oil price increases acts more like a “correction force” for the NEV market—altering the industry’s rhythm at critical points without changing its overall direction. During this process, consumer decision-making, corporate product strategies, and market structure are all evolving. These changes are the deeper impacts of this oil price rise.