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Deep Analysis of Rising International Oil Prices

On April 3, 2026, the international crude oil market once again stirred a wave: U.S. WTI May crude futures surged by 13.03%, closing at $113.17 per barrel; June London Brent crude increased by 8.95%, closing at $109.29 per barrel. The domestic refined oil market also experienced fluctuations, with the latest round of oil price adjustments shifting from decline to rise. It is expected that when the price adjustment window opens on April 7, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 310 yuan per ton, equivalent to a rise of 0.24-0.27 yuan per liter.

Why the sharp increase?

(1) Direct Impact of Escalating Geopolitical Conflicts

U.S. President Trump’s nationwide speech on April 2 became the immediate trigger for this oil price surge. Trump declared that although the war is nearing its end, the U.S. will carry out a “very fierce” attack on Iran within the next two to three weeks. This statement completely shattered market expectations of a quick de-escalation of the conflict.

(2) Continued Fermentation of Supply Contraction

The Strait of Hormuz, as the “throat” of global energy transportation, directly influences international oil prices through its capacity changes. Data shows that in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, over a quarter of global seaborne crude oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for about one-fifth of global oil and petroleum product consumption. It also handles about one-fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas transportation, mostly from Qatar. However, since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict in late February 2026, Iran’s missile and drone attacks have caused a 97% drop in traffic through the strait, marking one of the largest supply shocks in global oil market history.

Although Gulf oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE quickly activated alternative transportation routes to ease supply pressure, the effect has been limited. Saudi’s east-west oil pipelines are operating at full capacity, exporting 5 million barrels per day via the Red Sea to Lamu Port. The UAE’s Abu Dhabi oil pipeline increased oil exports from Fujeirah Port from 1.17 million barrels/day in February to 1.62 million barrels/day in March. Iraq also restarted land routes to Jihan Port in Turkey. However, these alternative routes have a combined capacity of only about 9 million barrels per day, far below the normal 20 million barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz, unable to fill the supply gap. Moreover, these land pipelines are also within missile and drone attack ranges in conflict zones, posing high security risks and further fueling market concerns over supply stability.

(3) Self-Reinforcing Market Expectations

Beyond the immediate supply disruption risks, market expectations have also self-reinforced the price increase. Barclays Bank previously warned that if the U.S.-Iran conflict persists until the end of April, the 2026 Brent crude forward price could be re-priced to $100 per barrel. Trump’s latest speech confirmed this pessimistic outlook, prompting investors to rush into crude futures for hedging, with large buy orders pushing prices higher. Additionally, as a vital global commodity with inelastic demand, even if U.S. domestic oil production increases and reduces direct imports from the Middle East, a 3%-5% reduction in global supply could trigger 30%-50% volatility in international oil prices. The 97% drop in Hormuz Strait traffic equates to about a 5% reduction in global oil supply, directly reflecting the price surge caused by supply-demand imbalance.

Opportunities in Crisis? - Iran and Oman Draft New Agreement

On April 3, reports indicated that Iran is drafting an agreement with Oman to implement “traffic regulation” for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while emphasizing that there will be no restrictions on ship passage. This news offers a glimmer of hope; if the agreement is successfully reached and implemented, the capacity of the Strait of Hormuz could gradually recover. However, market reactions remain cautious, as the specific content and implementation effects of the agreement are still uncertain, and the U.S. government’s military threats against Iran have not been lifted. Geopolitical risks remain a “Damocles sword” hanging over the market.

Chain Reaction of Oil Price Rise? - Multiple Challenges to the Global Economy

(1) Increasing Inflationary Pressures
Rising oil prices directly push up costs in transportation, logistics, chemicals, and other industries, which then propagate through the supply chain, leading to widespread price increases. For the U.S., despite relatively ample domestic energy supplies, gasoline prices have risen back to $4 per gallon, approaching the historic high levels seen at the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, further intensifying domestic inflation pressures.

European TTF natural gas prices have doubled compared to pre-conflict levels, compounded by Qatar’s LNG capacity damage, causing energy costs across Europe to soar. Europe’s industrial sector, still recovering from the Russia-Ukraine energy shock, faces renewed high energy costs, increasing the risk of stagflation.

(2) Economic Growth Slowdown

Price increases tend to suppress consumption and investment, thereby dragging down economic growth. In the U.S., consumer confidence has plummeted due to high oil prices, and sustained high prices may further dampen public sentiment, constraining spending. High interest rates combined with high oil prices also raise corporate financing and production costs, discouraging investment. The IMF previously lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.8%, and this oil price surge could lead to further downward revisions.

Future Price Outlook? - Watch for the $120 Resistance

The trajectory of the U.S.-Iran conflict heavily influences oil prices. The likelihood of U.S. ground attacks on Iran has increased significantly, which could be the final catalyst for oil prices. Attention should be paid to previous highs and the $120 level, which could be a good point for profit-taking on long positions. $BTC $STO $XTI