I'm a bit anxious—will there be a major crash on Monday? What trading opportunities are there for Bitcoin and crude oil? Let’s take a quick look.

1. The current situation isn’t very optimistic. Wall Street was closed on Friday due to the holiday, accumulating three days of sentiment that could be unleashed all at once on Monday. Will there be a crash on Monday?

2. I think the probability is quite high. The war is escalating, and according to Trump himself, it will continue for several weeks. The bullish news for oil is still rising, so at least for these next few days, I prefer to short on rallies.

3. Watch out, we’re shorting on rallies—only short after a rebound, not chasing a decline. Previously, we shorted at around 67k and covered at 66.2k. Now, I plan to short near the next resistance at around 68k, hoping it will go up a bit so we can enter.

4. Compared to Bitcoin’s uncertainty, I find the recently launched crude oil CLUSDT very clear. No matter how high it rises in the short term, the war will end, and oil prices will eventually revert to an average of around $70 in the long run, a decline of up to 40%. Historically, after sharp increases, oil prices tend to fall back to the mean.

5. So I plan to short at current levels of 112 and 130, with a 1x long-term position—no liquidation risk. Ultimately, prices will come down. This is also part of positioning for a huge crash when the war ends—CL could drop 20% or more instantly, and this move will likely be bigger than the rebound in US stocks or Bitcoin.

6. Additionally, we need to be cautious. Trump occasionally releases fake positive news before the market opens to boost the market, and our short position on crude oil is meant to hedge against this: easing conflict -> crude oil plummets, and we profit. Every step is carefully considered—steady and strategic. Let’s operate together!